Bases Law News

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Dec 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

660451333

OptionProbability

A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm

Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims

An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States

An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies

Chronic Back Pain

Mental illness

Fame

Radical Leftism

Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare

Zizian Murder Cult member

Business

Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.

Genetic predisposition (Italian)

Targeted hit/contract killing

brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic

Personal conflict with CEO

Random act of violence

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

42.09%chance

555181377

OptionVotes

YES

2731

1983

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.62%chance

33182183

OptionVotes

YES

1092

916

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3148216

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1930517

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025?

Apr 6, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.01%chance

365853

OptionVotes

YES

1425

702

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

May 29, 12:35 AMJan 1, 1:23 AM

68.88%chance

384517

OptionVotes

YES

1488

672

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.92%chance

113578

OptionVotes

YES

13205

7968

Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?

May 20, 9:03 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

43.14%chance

411563

OptionVotes

YES

1150

839

Will Congress revert tax law to allow for full expensing of US-based R&D in 2025?

Jan 4, 5:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.25%chance

5634

OptionVotes

YES

1634

612

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

39.09%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

1125

1080

Bases Law News

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Prediction markets for Bases Law

Prediction markets for Bases Law

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?

Will Congress revert tax law to allow for full expensing of US-based R&D in 2025?

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

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