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Top stories

Pakistan-Linked APT36 Deploys Linux Desktop Shortcut Malware in Fresh India Spying Push

Pakistan-Linked APT36 Deploys Linux Desktop Shortcut Malware in Fresh India Spying Push

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Bash

Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?

Aug 7, 7:28 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

2.53%chance

287107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5225

701

Tim + Bashu (Intrusive Thoughts) stock

Feb 11, 5:40 AM

264369

OptionProbability

NO

YES

548

408

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

14.22%chance

363678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

359

Will Asahifuji win the Juryo Yusho at the November 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (Kyushu basho)

Sep 25, 9:14 PMNov 22, 11:59 PM

28.8%chance

51794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11409

9371

Will there be a zensho-yusho (15-0) in Makuuchi in 2026? [sumo basho]

Jan 27, 7:08 PMNov 28, 11:59 PM

6.5%chance

81688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

870

Atamifuji to win a Basho in 2026

Mar 25, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.74%chance

101053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?

May 4, 9:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.49%chance

11460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

326

108

Does Everything Truly Change with Bashar?

Oct 11, 7:56 PMDec 31, 8:50 PM

26.58%chance

599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Have I intellectually outpaced Destiny?

Dec 12, 2:35 PMOct 12, 10:59 PM

68.83%chance

779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

132

Which of the following will I accomplish in the USA 2026 TST cycle?

Nov 5, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

245

OptionProbability

Solve at least 2 of the following: {P2/P5 non-APMO, P4 APMO}

Solve every P1/P4 level problem (P1,2,3 on APMO)

Solve a problem with <= 15 solves

Solve a geo problem by bashing

Get in a romantic relationship with someone whose initials are not "ES"

66

50

50

36

34

Which will be independent first: Texas or Bashkortostan?

Dec 29, 7:21 PMFeb 12, 7:59 AM

331

OptionProbability

Bashkortostan

Texas

62

38

Will Qiaochu Yuan and Brian Basham ever talk again by EOY 2026?

Jan 3, 11:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

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