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Prediction markets for Battle

"One Battle After Another" wins Best Picture?

Oct 4, 12:37 AMMar 14, 10:59 PM

71.2%chance

5753505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10722

6935

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?

Jan 13, 6:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

87.18%chance

912751

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2609

384

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

833042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

1300

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

232243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?

Jun 29, 3:38 PMFeb 28, 4:38 PM

80.56%chance

201473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2035

491

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?

Jan 13, 6:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

66.83%chance

6879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

705

Asgore boss battle in Deltarune Chapter 5?

Jul 23, 5:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.85%chance

8493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

964

In which year will the next battle be released in MTG?

Jun 9, 3:08 PMDec 31, 4:00 PM

5405

OptionProbability

2026

After 2030

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

22

18

13

13

11

11

11

From which country will Vietnam buy its next Main Battle Tank?

Feb 1, 10:30 AMFeb 8, 4:59 PM

7204

OptionProbability

Russia

USA

South Korea

India

Japan

Germany

Other

China

Israel

23

18

14

12

8

8

8

5

5

Which country or union will win the first battle on the moon?

Mar 18, 5:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

698

OptionProbability

Other

USA

Texas

Australia

China (mainland)

Russia

European Union

India

25

19

14

10

9

8

8

7

Will a minor battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Jul 28, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.54%chance

570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

105

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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