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Prediction markets for Battle

Who will win DEATH BATTLE: Naruto vs Luffy? (Naruto vs One Piece)

Oct 19, 3:35 AMNov 18, 4:34 AM

3028704

OptionProbability

Naruto

Luffy

70

30

100,000 Mana Boss Battle

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 7:07 PM

3.98%chance

415063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4909

204

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.37%chance

273078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2090

478

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

833042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

1300

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?

Jan 13, 6:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

83.12%chance

81743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2220

451

From which country will Vietnam buy its next Main Battle Tank?

Feb 1, 10:30 AMFeb 8, 4:59 PM

8531

OptionProbability

Russia

South Korea

India

Israel

Other

USA

Germany

China

Japan

28

21

13

9

8

7

7

5

4

Car Wash Battle: Who will finish construction and open first?

Sep 22, 3:07 AMMar 9, 5:55 PM

3200

OptionProbability

BayWash (River's Edge Entrance)

Shammy Wash (Next to Starbucks/7Eleven)

90

10

Which country or union will win the first battle on the moon?

Mar 18, 5:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7134

OptionProbability

Other

USA

Texas

China (mainland)

Australia

Russia

European Union

India

26

20

12

10

10

8

8

6

The final battle in Quroe's favorite animal market will be Sulfur cave molly vs Common bed bug.

Oct 22, 3:42 AMJan 17, 3:37 AM

17.77%chance

4124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

14

Will "Heritability: Five Battles" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 26, 6:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will there be any survivors of the Battle of Budapest by 2030?

Sep 11, 1:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.7%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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