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Prediction markets for Battle

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?

Jan 13, 6:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

93.25%chance

1113861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3719

269

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

833042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

1300

Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?

Jun 29, 3:38 PMMar 31, 3:38 PM

80.39%chance

322727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

494

In which year will the next battle be released in MTG?

Jun 9, 3:08 PMDec 31, 4:00 PM

62529

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

After 2030

2025

61

22

5

5

4

3

2

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

232243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?

Jan 13, 6:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

66.83%chance

6879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

705

From which country will Vietnam buy its next Main Battle Tank?

Feb 1, 10:30 AMFeb 8, 4:59 PM

8531

OptionProbability

Russia

South Korea

India

Israel

Other

USA

Germany

China

Japan

28

21

13

9

8

7

7

5

4

Asgore boss battle in Deltarune Chapter 5?

Jul 23, 5:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.85%chance

8493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

964

Will there be any survivors of the Battle of Stalingrad by 2030?

Sep 11, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

6188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

78

Will "Heritability: Five Battles" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 26, 6:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will there be any survivors of the Battle of Budapest by 2030?

Sep 11, 1:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.7%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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