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Prediction markets for Battle

Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?

Jun 29, 3:38 PMSep 30, 3:38 PM

86.56%chance

538808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2538

394

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

833042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

1300

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.24%chance

263003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2015

496

'One Battle After Another' wins Best Picture Oscar?

Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

99%chance

131779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1303

53

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?

Jan 13, 6:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

83.12%chance

81743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2220

451

From which country will Vietnam buy its next Main Battle Tank?

Feb 1, 10:30 AMFeb 8, 4:59 PM

8531

OptionProbability

Russia

South Korea

India

Israel

Other

USA

Germany

China

Japan

28

21

13

9

8

7

7

5

4

Holder Battle: YES vs NO

Sep 20, 8:04 PMSep 27, 8:00 PM

48.88%chance

7266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

Which country or union will win the first battle on the moon?

Mar 18, 5:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

698

OptionProbability

Other

USA

Texas

Australia

China (mainland)

Russia

European Union

India

25

19

14

10

9

8

8

7

Car Wash Battle: Who will finish construction and open first?

Sep 22, 3:07 AMMar 9, 5:55 PM

292

OptionProbability

BayWash (River's Edge Entrance)

Shammy Wash (Next to Starbucks/7Eleven)

79

21

Will "Heritability: Five Battles" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 26, 6:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will there be any survivors of the Battle of Budapest by 2030?

Sep 11, 1:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.7%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

Will "OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 3:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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