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OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Andrew Tate
Dylan Klebold
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Josh Hawley
Cersei Lannister
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Trump's attempted assassin
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Roko
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Jozef Tiso
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Thomas Midgley Jr.
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
A cockroach
Niko Bellic
Commodus
Tito
an asi agent from openai
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Vriska Serket
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Yuan Shu
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Paul Von Hindenburg
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Hunter Biden's laptop
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Mehmed V
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
JD Vance
Karl Marx
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
Klaus Schwab
Sean Hannity
Rochelle Shen
Black Hat (XKCD)
King George III of England
Ada Nguyen
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Salvador Allende
Rorschach
Wario
A literal ham sandwich
goth600
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
Neville Chamberlain
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Emperor Ling of Han
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
Lex Luthor
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Bad Bunny
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
Eren Yeager
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
Stan Smith
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Justin Trudeau
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Santa Claus
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
@strutheo :)
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
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OptionProbability
Make the bread taste good
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Add 50g honey
Watch the video
Autolyse 20 minutes
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Improve the bread
it needs more salt
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Use 50% whole grain flour
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Toast the bread
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Add 50g sugar
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Increase water by 50 g
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Swap 200ml water for milk
Bake it with your best friend.
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Add a pinch of sugar
Make the bread great again
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Replace flour with flowers
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Bake vodka into it
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Add 2g? of baking soda
Let dough sit 48 hrs
put butter into it
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Half yeast
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Play classical music while baking
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Quadruple salt
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Bake vegimite into it.
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Double oven temperature
Halve oven temperature
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Bake in rectangular tin
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake the bread with love
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0
0
OptionProbability
Directly help with LessOnline and/or Manifest
Help Ray with Feedbackloop Rationality
Directly help with the LessWrong Community Weekend
Actively talk to as many organizers as possible
Publish the rest of Running A Basic ____ sequence, going up to 1k+ events
Build a better Meetup Crossposter
Run a Meetup Exchange Program
Run an essayist writing group
Make the refined, digital version of Meetup In A Box
Run East Coast Rationalist Megameetup
Youtube Guide To ACX
Tiktok Guide To The Sequences
Run Vermont/Massachusetts Summer Solstice
Run LessWrong Community Census 2025
Get a Rationality Club going in a high school
Publish the rest of Conflict Resolution sequence
Run the ACX Meetup Reimbursement program
Run a paid workshop or dojo (Think CFAR workshop or Trading Bootcamp)
Fix and upgrade LessWrong's /Community page
Find a nice high paid normal job and fund someone else doing cool rationality meetup stuff
Put together an ACX equivalent to the EA Handbook
Create an ACX Jobs Board
Help get a Boston version of Fractal off the ground
Run Boston Solstice
Publish Anatomy of Community sequence
Set up a formal 501c3 (or something like that)
Handle incoming complaints about local meetups
Publish a guide to running a Sky-Style Summer Solstice
Backend ACX Everywhere (Fall and Spring)
Get Calibration Trivia to be run in multiple pubs, unaffiliated with the rationalist community
Publish some really good fanfic
Publish a beautiful, well edited Highlights From The Codex in physical form
HPMOR 10-year anniversary
Make the refined, physical version of Meetup In A Box
34
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18
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8
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OptionProbability
Ship dropped anchor before colliding with the bridge
An emergency generator was activated on the ship before the collision
An overload trip mechanism was activated on the ship
Ship ran propeller in reverse before colliding with bridge
Ship switched from one primary fuel source to another between leaving and colliding with bridge
Ship had bad fuel
At least one member of the road crew working on the bridge received a warning about the ship via phone/radio before the collision
The loss of power was caused by a cooling water blockage
Ship sounded its horn at least once between the first power loss and the collision
Between the ship undocking and the collision, a person on the ship sustained a physical injury serious enough to prevent them from doing their job
Ship operators were on drugs
A person on the ship at the time of the collision will be convicted of assault against another person on the ship.
A person was trespassing on the ship at the time of the collision
A part of the ship other than the anchor fell off between leaving and the collision
Ship rudder was not disabled during power loss event.
Container Ship was victim of cyber attack
100
100
82
65
41
36
34
34
32
29
25
23
20
14
14
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1140
945
OptionProbability
Abed will say "cool…cool cool cool"
Jeff will give an inspirational speech
🎵 Troy and Abed (something something) 🎵 (eg. in the morning)
Inspector Spacetime will be referenced
Starburns will feature
Professor Duncan will feature
Britta will be called "the worst"
Garrett will feature
"Britta" will be used as a verb
"Six seasons and a movie" will be mentioned
Magnitude will feature
(Fat) Neil will feature
Frankie will feature
Someone will shoot a paintball gun
Troy's AC/Plumbing story will be referenced
Hickey will feature
Elroy will feature
Abed will wear a cape
There will be a pillow/blanket fort
Annie's Boobs (the monkey) will feature
Dungeons and Dragons will be played
Pierce will feature
It will be released in 2024
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23
17
17
0
OptionProbability
Other "loud" outcome
non-hedonic utilitronium
Orgasmium
Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems
initiate vacuum collapse
It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.
Paperclips or widgets
Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it
Literal rats on literal heroin
Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes
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28
13
7
7
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4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1346
1029
OptionProbability
Other
sigma
based
cool
spice
whale
heat
loose
caught
cot
retro
TRANCHE
gas
numb
left
sunk
cought
warm
tepid
luke
damp
jank
sweet
sick
沉着的 chénzhuóde
cloe
swag
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24
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14
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
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0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
If I apologize and make amends for past mistakes, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
If I maintain regular communication with my ex over the next 3 months, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
If I post on instagram and stories of cool stuff I’m doing, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
If I live alone and don’t have a roommate, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase
If I start dating other people via dating apps, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase
If I start going out to meet women to go on dates with, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase
If I tell her about this prediction market, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase
If I propose with a ring at this moment, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
If I tell her that I will commit to 1 date per week, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
If I gain 15 pounds of muscle, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
If I stop watching porn, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
If I start TRT, the likelihood of us getting back together will increase
If I go no contact for 3 months, the likelihood of getting back together will increase
Within 3 years
Within 6 years
Within a year
Within 6 months
69
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50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
37
27
27
26
18
OptionVotes
NO
YES
203
109
OptionVotes
NO
YES
80
62