Bear Market News

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

92.28%chance

75857043

OptionVotes

YES

362974

30273

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.04%chance

508725007

OptionVotes

YES

16811

12177

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.73%chance

25163138

OptionVotes

YES

23558

4245

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.26%chance

11730920

OptionVotes

YES

2407

416

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911502

OptionProbability

YES

2507

2431

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

177883

OptionProbability

YES

3139

2774

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Apr 24, 3:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73882

OptionProbability

Chicago Bears win their division before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears finish regular season with a winning record before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears fire head coach before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears have a player who gets league MVP before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears win league championship before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears are sold by the majority owner (or ownership group) before the Chicago Bulls

100

Next SP500 bear market?

Nov 21, 2:18 AMJan 1, 1:59 PM

152046

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2028

2029

2030

Other

2023

2024

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

31.97%chance

431883

OptionVotes

YES

1524

197

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

1005

971

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

YES

6240

5801

Bear Market News

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Prediction markets for Bear Market

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Next SP500 bear market?

Will Sam Altman know who *I* am? (5 year time frame)

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Latest stories

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)