Bear Market News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

16300

14168

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

4765967

OptionVotes

YES

130486

84436

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

YES

1816

552

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911502

OptionProbability

YES

2507

2431

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

177883

OptionProbability

YES

3139

2774

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.72%chance

54859

OptionVotes

YES

10466

9555

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Apr 24, 3:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73882

OptionProbability

Chicago Bears win their division before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears finish regular season with a winning record before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears fire head coach before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears have a player who gets league MVP before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears win league championship before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears are sold by the majority owner (or ownership group) before the Chicago Bulls

100

Next SP500 bear market?

Nov 21, 2:18 AMJan 1, 1:59 PM

152046

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2028

2029

2030

Other

2023

2024

Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?

Apr 2, 4:57 PMJun 30, 12:00 AM

2.45%chance

181678

OptionVotes

YES

629

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

1299

353

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

1005

971

Bear Market News

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Next SP500 bear market?

Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?

Will Sam Altman know who *I* am? (5 year time frame)

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Latest stories

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)