Bear Market News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

16706

12559

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

YES

1862

538

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

2218194

OptionVotes

YES

1024

940

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911352

OptionProbability

YES

2532

2281

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

167833

OptionProbability

YES

3149

2724

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Jan 21, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.62%chance

204917

OptionVotes

YES

2162

462

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Apr 24, 3:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63862

OptionProbability

Chicago Bears win their division before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears finish regular season with a winning record before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears fire head coach before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears have a player who gets league MVP before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears win league championship before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears are sold by the majority owner (or ownership group) before the Chicago Bulls

100

Next SP500 bear market?

Nov 21, 2:18 AMJan 1, 1:59 PM

142017

OptionProbability

2027

2025

2026

2028

2029

2030

Other

2023

2024

Planet 9 named 'Hades' upon discovery?

May 5, 4:30 AMJan 2, 5:29 AM

11.1%chance

72000

OptionVotes

YES

2830

353

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

1299

353

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

1005

971

Will 25 London restaurants offer a cultivated meat product by 2029?

Mar 3, 3:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.45%chance

12396

OptionVotes

YES

1014

926

Bear Market News

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Prediction markets for Bear Market

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Next SP500 bear market?

Planet 9 named 'Hades' upon discovery?

Will Sam Altman know who *I* am? (5 year time frame)

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Will 25 London restaurants offer a cultivated meat product by 2029?

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Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)