Before Midnight News

Conditional on Trump getting/not getting Peace Nobel, land conflict with Venezuela before midnight Christmas Eve 2025?

Oct 8, 5:45 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

341453

OptionProbability

No Peace Nobel for Trump, no land conflict with Venezuela

No Peace Nobel for Trump, land conflict with Venezuela

Trump Wins Peace Nobel, no land conflict with Venezuela

Trump Wins Peace Nobel, land conflict with Venezuela

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.49%chance

6618

OptionVotes

YES

526

What Big Moves will European Union make before midnight Christmas Eve 2034 (add)

Oct 7, 10:37 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

10601

OptionProbability

Add country(ies)

Relax unanimity requirements

Create Armed forces

Create Reserve like(ish) the US Federal Reserve

Remove a countries voting rights (even for a period)

Expel a country(ies)

Become a country

US strikes within and/or boots on the ground in Nigeria before midnight Christmas Eve 2026?

Nov 1, 11:06 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

11.65%chance

9401

OptionVotes

YES

275

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?

Jul 21, 2:46 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39%chance

7203

OptionVotes

YES

176

128

Hague Invasion Act invoked before Midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Oct 26, 10:34 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

16%chance

4161

OptionVotes

YES

229

Mexico summons US ambassador before midnight Christmas Eve 2025?

Aug 21, 2:03 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

40.22%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

122

Number symbolism in US curriculum 6th grade or below, promulgatory or sceptical, before midnight Christmas Eve 2027?

Nov 29, 6:22 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

190

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 10 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?

Jul 21, 2:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.15%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

135

Process formally started to overhaul the Rescue Agreement [for astronauts] before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Nov 6, 8:44 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

150

Trump challenges War Powers Resolution before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Aug 19, 5:30 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

51.94%chance

443

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will US refuse gold repatriation before Christmas Eve midnight 2028?

Oct 22, 7:20 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

44.38%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

112

Before Midnight News

Prediction markets for Before Midnight

Prediction markets for Before Midnight

Prediction markets for Before Midnight

Conditional on Trump getting/not getting Peace Nobel, land conflict with Venezuela before midnight Christmas Eve 2025?

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

What Big Moves will European Union make before midnight Christmas Eve 2034 (add)

US strikes within and/or boots on the ground in Nigeria before midnight Christmas Eve 2026?

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?

Hague Invasion Act invoked before Midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Mexico summons US ambassador before midnight Christmas Eve 2025?

Number symbolism in US curriculum 6th grade or below, promulgatory or sceptical, before midnight Christmas Eve 2027?

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 10 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?

Process formally started to overhaul the Rescue Agreement [for astronauts] before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Trump challenges War Powers Resolution before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Will US refuse gold repatriation before Christmas Eve midnight 2028?

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