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Prediction markets for Before Midnight

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.14%chance

7668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

67

What Big Moves will European Union make before midnight Christmas Eve 2034 (add)

Oct 7, 10:37 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

10626

OptionProbability

Add country(ies)

Relax unanimity requirements

Create Armed forces

Create Reserve like(ish) the US Federal Reserve

Remove a countries voting rights (even for a period)

Expel a country(ies)

Become a country

63

59

55

50

40

30

8

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?

Jul 21, 2:46 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.25%chance

8228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

114

TV presenter Jonathan Ross differentiates his name before midnight Christmas Eve 2026?

Jan 9, 6:22 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

13.84%chance

6182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

Hague Invasion Act invoked before Midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Oct 26, 10:34 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

16%chance

4161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?

Jul 21, 2:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.51%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

106

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 10 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?

Jul 21, 2:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.86%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

88

Will US refuse gold repatriation before Christmas Eve midnight 2028?

Oct 22, 7:20 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

33.17%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Process formally started to overhaul the Rescue Agreement [for astronauts] before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Nov 6, 8:44 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Trump challenges War Powers Resolution before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Aug 19, 5:30 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

51.94%chance

443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

How much time before midnight on Doomsday Clock in 2027?

Jul 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

327

OptionProbability

60-80 seconds

81-84 seconds

40-60 seconds

20-40 seconds

1-20 seconds

Midnight

32

14

14

14

14

12

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?

Jul 21, 2:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

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