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BELIEVE News

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.78%chance

5985442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40359

2478

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.8%chance

22150925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1100

Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Mar 10, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.18%chance

11414373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

1804

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.98%chance

659864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

912

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.41%chance

786766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3495

1023

More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026

Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

40.07%chance

292982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

411897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

815

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.12%chance

491707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

874

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.37%chance

21964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

1249

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

Jul 11, 11:37 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7270

7055

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