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Prediction markets for Believe

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.15%chance

16150732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10883

1997

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

1141

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.36%chance

4639747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29410

3400

Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?

Jan 4, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.52%chance

4515811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11214

9228

Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Mar 10, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.48%chance

11314363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1817

1806

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.96%chance

638902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

1042

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.88%chance

766325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3054

1067

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Dec 2, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.97%chance

303385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

711

Will Manifold users believe they have recovered from TDS in 2028?

Nov 7, 1:35 PMOct 2, 3:59 AM

10.64%chance

102353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2506

142

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.91%chance

461643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

852

More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026

Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

42.26%chance

221322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

856

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.37%chance

21964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

1249

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