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Prediction markets for BELIEVE

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

5259564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48990

2041

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

21850691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1249

Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Mar 10, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.48%chance

11314363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1817

1806

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.41%chance

786766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3495

1023

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

411897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

815

More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026

Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

35%chance

231872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.91%chance

461643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

852

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.37%chance

21964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

1249

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

In 2030, will we still believe economies should mature into becoming service-based? [vibes]

Feb 20, 11:07 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

66.8%chance

13252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

960

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