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Prediction markets for Believe in Something

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.88%chance

505724917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16837

12087

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8916459

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030

2035+

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

19

18

13

12

12

9

6

4

4

3

0

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

399880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2003

501

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.03%chance

738853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2588

1201

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2103

477

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

146264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

662

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

58

42

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

77.43%chance

51540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3308

1022

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1116

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