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Prediction markets for Believe in Something

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14169

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.63%chance

317489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

829

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

146264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

662

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

77.43%chance

51540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3308

1022

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Jan 18, 10:56 AMMay 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

91293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

44.84%chance

201164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1315

620

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52%chance

10704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

1156

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

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