Belong News

It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

They record images/video using digital cameras

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Their true nature will remain a mystery

Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Belong to a hobbyist

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to an activist

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

Linked to illegal drug activity

Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public

An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones

Belong to a start-up

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

they're designed to look like a commercial jet

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to a large company

Belong to the US military/gov

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Are investigating Plasmoids

They’re looking for ionizing radiation

Hoax put on specifically by Anthpo

Are investigating Gamma Radiation

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Linked to Russia (government/military)

It's a publicity stunt for a company

Belong to a foreign government/agency

Aliens

Linked to Blockchain technology

AI superintelligence

Terrorism

It's a new delivery service

Linked to North Korea

Linked to China (government/military)

100% of all footage of the drones was AI generated

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Sudanese Civil War ends

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

YES

YES

Mauritius

United Kingdom

United States

A new independent "Chagos Islands" country or countries

They will be underwater / won't exist

Maldives

China

NO

Wilful killing

Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;

Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;

Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would...

Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;

Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;

Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict...

Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;

Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;

Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, ...

Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;

Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;

Employing poison or poisoned weapons;

Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;

Taking of hostages.

Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;

Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;

Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;

Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military...

Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;

Declaring that no quarter will be given;

Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal...

Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;

Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;

The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or ...

Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor ...

Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;

Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;

Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;

Other

Jill Biden

Hunter Biden

Janet Yellen

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

Jacob Sullivan

Antony Blinken

Merrick Garland

Dene-Yeniseian (language family that includes both Na-Dene and Yeniseian languages)

Austro-Tai (language family that includes both Austronesian and Kra-Dai languages)

Italo-Celtic (an IE subfamily that includes both Latin and a Celtic language, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Je-Tupi-Carib (language family that includes both Je, Tupi and Carib languages)

Pontic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Northwest Caucasian languages)

Paleo-Balkan (an IE subfamily that includes all of: Albanian, Ilyrian, Daco-Thracian, Hellenic, Phrygian. Can also include Armenian, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Uralo-Siberian (language family that includes Uralic, Yukaghir and Eskaleut)

Altaic (or any other language family containing both Turkic, Tungusic and Mongolic languages)

Indo-Uralic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Uralic languages)

Other

Chinese (PRC)

American

Russian

Japan

NO

1

2

3

4

5

6+

0