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Prediction markets for bench Verified

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.81%chance

218140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2148

466

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83569

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

97

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?

Feb 3, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

18917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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