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OpenAI’s Lobster GPT-5 Model With June 2024 Cutoff Outperforms Nectarine and Starfish, Predicts Trump Win and Bitcoin Above $85K

OpenAI’s Lobster GPT-5 Model With June 2024 Cutoff Outperforms Nectarine and Starfish, Predicts Trump Win and Bitcoin Above $85K

Authors

5

8 days ago

Prediction markets for Benchmarks

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

239238329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5784

4452

Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025

Nov 9, 1:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

112115251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

961

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.19%chance

8336738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.31%chance

9025606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3919

917

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

11225182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1618

741

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.07%chance

11314902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2220

880

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.05%chance

9814256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2083

697

Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025?

Dec 28, 7:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2414075

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Any Chinese Company

Meta

xAI

50

48

47

45

43

42

38

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

84.23%chance

415711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2299

317

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.06%chance

323177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1567

638

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.48%chance

413065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

824

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

931

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 25, 2025
Jul 25, 2025
AI Modeling
AI
OpenAI’s Lobster GPT-5 Model With June 2024 Cutoff Outperforms Nectarine and Starfish, Predicts Trump Win and Bitcoin Above $85K
Authors
5
8 days ago

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