Best AI Agent News

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Jun 7, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

89820927

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027

Jun 8, 4:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

34278398

OptionVotes

YES

2587

387

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597852

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@Quroe

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

5.31%chance

12321574

OptionVotes

YES

4221

237

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

49.18%chance

466533

OptionVotes

YES

1016

984

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.06%chance

262561

OptionVotes

YES

2850

354

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

211369

OptionVotes

YES

1752

571

Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026?

Mar 26, 2:31 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

11323

OptionVotes

YES

181

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

139

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

Best AI Agent News

Prediction markets for Best AI Agent

Prediction markets for Best AI Agent

Prediction markets for Best AI Agent

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026?

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Latest stories