Best AI Agent News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543871

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

10.33%chance

11920234

OptionVotes

YES

2947

339

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

46%chance

384735

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

72.96%chance

243510

OptionVotes

YES

2348

1009

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Feb 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

152152

OptionVotes

YES

102

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.07%chance

161466

OptionVotes

YES

1386

752

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

191273

OptionVotes

YES

1656

604

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.06%chance

181137

OptionVotes

YES

1533

659

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

122

Best AI Agent News

Prediction markets for Best AI Agent

Prediction markets for Best AI Agent

Prediction markets for Best AI Agent

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

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