OptionVotes
YES
NO
1530
847
1906
695
OptionProbability
>5bn
>8bn
>10bn
>16bn
> 20bn
> 30bn
89
87
79
70
47
29
386
35
Jeffrey Sachs
Huey Li (and the news)
SerpentZA
Laowhy86
Nicholas Kristof
Michael Pettis
Peter Hessler
James Fallows
Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business
Liziqi
Nathan Rich
Living in China
Jerry Kowal
Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.
Asia Society Policy Institute
Yale Center Beijing
Brookings Institution (China Center)
Blondie in China
Elon Musk
Bill Bishop, Sinocism
52
50
41
40
4007
3989
Mar 2026
Apr 2026
May 2026 - July 2026
Dec 2025
Jan 2026
Feb 2026
Aug 2026 or later/never
23
16
14
13
9