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Prediction markets for Best Director

Best Director winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 2:12 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

123050

OptionProbability

Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler - Sinners

Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao - Hamnet

83

13

1

1

1

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Who will win the Oscar for Best Director?🏆|🎬 2026 Oscars

Jun 2, 4:21 AMMar 16, 10:59 PM

241550

OptionProbability

Paul Thomas Anderson

Ryan Coogler

Joachim Trier

Jafar Panahi

Chloé Zhao

Other

James Cameron

Guillermo del Toro

Kathryn Bigelow

81

10

3

3

1

1

0

0

0

Will DiCaprio be the main protagonist in Martin Scorsese's next film The Wager?

Oct 27, 4:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.06%chance

41017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

757

20

Does One Battle After Another have what it takes to win Best Picture at the 98th Oscars?

Jan 9, 10:20 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

69%chance

6417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Spirit Awards: Best Director

Jan 23, 12:38 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

4144

OptionProbability

Ira Sachs - Peter Hujar’s Day

Clint Bentley - Train Dreams

Mary Bronstein - If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Lloyd Lee Choi - Lucky Lu

Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby

30

23

17

17

14

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.25%chance

7105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

109

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jan 28, 1:58 AMMar 15, 11:59 PM

62.55%chance

389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Will the eventual Best Picture winner also win Best Director at the 2026 Oscars?

Jan 24, 2:40 AMMar 15, 11:59 PM

65%chance

236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

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