Best Editing News

Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?

Aug 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

2.74%chance

4263920

OptionVotes

YES

73275

3001

In how many months from the the 1 of January 2025 will the Russo-Ukraine war end.

Feb 27, 9:30 PMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

3651806

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 3

Above 6

Above 9

Above 12

Above 15

Above 18

Above 24

100

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

28.22%chance

10918455

OptionVotes

YES

1595

627

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.05%chance

10110711

OptionVotes

YES

3305

1751

Mario Kart World MEGAMARKET

Apr 6, 4:52 AMApr 3, 11:59 PM

106154

OptionProbability

It will be nominated for at least one award at the Game Awards 2025

It will be nominated for multiple awards at the Game Awards 2025

It will get a Metascore of 50 or more

It will get a Metascore of 55 or more

It will get a Metascore of 60 or more

It will get a Metascore of 65 or more

It will get a Metascore of 70 or more

It will get a Metascore of 75 or more

It will get a Metascore of 80 or more

It will get a Metascore of 85 or more

It will have sold over 1 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 3 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 5 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 5.91 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Super Circuit for the Game Boy Advance) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 6.88 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Double Dash for the Nintendo Gamecube) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 8.46 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 8 for the WiiU) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 8.76 million copies (the lifetime sales of Super Mario Kart for the Super Nintendo) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 6.88 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Double Dash for the Nintendo Gamecube) by the end of Calendar Year 2025

It will have sold over 6.88 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Double Dash for the Nintendo Gamecube) by the end of FY2026

It will be the best-selling Nintendo Switch 2 game (not including Nintendo Switch 2 edition games) at the end of calendar year 2025

It will have sold over 9.87 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 64 for the Nintendo 64) by the end of FY2026

It will be the best-selling Nintendo Switch 2 game (not including Nintendo Switch 2 edition games) at the end of calendar year 2026

It will have sold over 9.87 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 64 for the Nintendo 64) by the end of Calendar Year 2025

It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of FY2027

It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of FY2026

It will have sold over 37.38 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart Wii) by the end of FY2027

It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of Calendar Year 2025

It will have sold over 37.38 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart Wii) by the end of FY2026

It will win an award at the Game Awards 2025

It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch (not counting WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8) by the end of calendar year 2027

It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch (not counting WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8) by the end of calendar year 2028

It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 (INCLUDING WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8 AND Switch Sales of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe) by the end of calendar year 2029

It will win multiple awards at the Game Awards 2025

It will get a Metascore of 90 or more

It will get a Metascore of 95 or more

It will have sold over 9.87 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 64 for the Nintendo 64) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 12 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 15 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of September 2025

100

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.31%chance

61585

OptionVotes

YES

5574

3482

What is the best text editor ?

Jul 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

221134

OptionProbability

emacs

vim

Other

VS Code

the rename button

notepad++

Visual Studio

Mivrosoft Word

NotePad

Microsoft Word

IntelliJ

Word Pad

Notepadqq

nano

atom

Sublime Text

chatGPT

Eclipse

Google Docs

Write on paper and use image to text

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

4071

3711

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.9%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

10021

9979

Best Editing News

Prediction markets for Best Editing

Prediction markets for Best Editing

Prediction markets for Best Editing

Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?

In how many months from the the 1 of January 2025 will the Russo-Ukraine war end.

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Mario Kart World MEGAMARKET

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

What is the best text editor ?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

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