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Prediction markets for Best Feature

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

1121

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.4%chance

423903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

833

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

46.41%chance

212381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

1276

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Will Manifold develop an app for the Apple Vision Pro by EOY 2029?

Feb 4, 5:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.36%chance

301128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

833

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2030

May 5, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.23%chance

16564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

915

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will Focus Features win Best Picture before April 1st 2031? Currently they have the most Oscar nominations without a win

Dec 14, 4:07 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

80.11%chance

463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

41

Will Manifold topic pages support URL query parameters for status, sort order, etc before 2026?

Dec 29, 7:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

What best describes how you use the “follow” feature on Manifold?

Feb 25, 9:56 PM

350

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