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Prediction markets for Best Feature

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16706

12559

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1135

Which film will win the Best Animated Feature Film Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jan 7, 11:22 AMMar 17, 11:59 PM

249029

OptionProbability

KPop Demon Hunters

Zootopia 2

Colorful Stage! The Movie: A Miku Who Can't Sing

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle

Elio

Scarlet

Arco

Other

The Bad Guys 2

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

87

7

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Best Animated Feature winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 1:55 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

104978

OptionProbability

KPop Demon Hunters

Zootopia 2

Arco

Elio

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

89

8

1

1

1

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.03%chance

434153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

983

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

63.8%chance

233030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1868

1229

Best International Feature winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 1:53 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

102430

OptionProbability

Sentimental Value

The Secret Agent

It Was Just an Accident

Sirat

The Voice of Hind Rajab

64

28

4

2

2

Best Documentary Feature winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 2:03 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

51222

OptionProbability

The Perfect Neighbor

Mr. Nobody against Putin

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting through Rocks

69

10

9

7

5

Spirit Awards: Best Feature

Jan 23, 12:25 AMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

495

OptionProbability

Peter Hujar's Day

Sorry, Baby

Train Dreams

The Plague

Twinless

28

21

19

16

16

Will Focus Features win Best Picture before April 1st 2031? Currently they have the most Oscar nominations without a win

Dec 14, 4:07 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

80.11%chance

463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

41

Which 2026 movie will win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature at the 2027 Oscars

Dec 28, 4:33 PMMar 9, 12:00 AM

322

OptionProbability

Other

Toy Story 5

Hoppers

48

29

23

What best describes how you use the “follow” feature on Manifold?

Feb 25, 9:56 PM

360

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