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Prediction markets for Best Feature

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17243865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

84.8%chance

315520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3468

721

Will Lamine Yamal win The Fifa Best Young Player award at the World Cup?

Mar 25, 2:56 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

33.63%chance

215297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1405

712

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.03%chance

434153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

983

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will "The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 2027 Academy Award

Mar 27, 6:17 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

41.57%chance

7506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

843

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?

Feb 16, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.84%chance

280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

926

Will Focus Features win Best Picture before April 1st 2031? Currently they have the most Oscar nominations without a win

Dec 14, 4:07 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

80.11%chance

463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

41

Which 2026 movie will win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature at the 2027 Oscars

Dec 28, 4:33 PMMar 9, 12:00 AM

556

OptionProbability

Other

Toy Story 5

Hoppers

67

20

14

What best describes how you use the “follow” feature on Manifold?

Feb 25, 9:56 PM

370

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