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Prediction markets for Best Film

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.74%chance

354986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3045

328

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.48%chance

252203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1583

632

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?

Feb 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171082

OptionProbability

>5bn

>8bn

>10bn

>16bn

> 20bn

> 30bn

89

87

79

70

47

29

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

885

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Oct 12, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16916

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Never

44

15

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

Will DiCaprio be the main protagonist in Martin Scorsese's next film The Wager?

Oct 27, 4:18 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.49%chance

2514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

386

35

Major Worm adaptation before 2040? (Movie/TV/Show)

Jun 23, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.15%chance

6347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

674

15

What will be true about the Oscar Best Picture winner at the 98th Academy Awards? (Films from 2025) [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 3, 4:21 AMMar 21, 3:59 AM

7302

OptionProbability

120 minutes or longer

135 min or longer

145 min or longer

budget was $50M or more

passes the bechdel test

$100M or more at box office

box office return was at least 2x budget (according to wikipedia)

Male lead actor

Four or more producers listed on wikipedia

Three or more people representing the film on stage during acceptance speech

300M or more global box office

Budget $150M or more

Distributed by A24

Title has only one word

Female director

93

74

74

74

74

66

66

55

50

50

50

50

37

17

16

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.25%chance

7105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

109

What will be the title/focus of the next Star Wars film? (Releasing 05/22/26)

Oct 20, 4:10 AMMay 24, 5:59 AM

999

OptionProbability

Rey’s New Jedi Order movie

“Dawn of the Jedi”

Dave Filoni’s The Mandalorian movie

56

51

34

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