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Prediction markets for Best Film

Which film will win the Best Animated Feature Film Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jan 7, 11:22 AMMar 17, 11:59 PM

249029

OptionProbability

KPop Demon Hunters

Zootopia 2

Colorful Stage! The Movie: A Miku Who Can't Sing

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle

Elio

Scarlet

Arco

Other

The Bad Guys 2

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

87

7

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Which film will win the inaugural Best Casting Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jan 7, 10:59 AMMar 17, 11:59 PM

105135

OptionProbability

Sinners

One Battle after Another

Marty Supreme

The Secret Agent

Hamnet

Frankenstein

Sentimental Value

Sirât

Weapoms

Wicked: For Good

66

17

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.51%chance

365026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3100

326

Which film will win the Best Visual Effects Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jan 7, 11:02 AMMar 17, 11:59 PM

73736

OptionProbability

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Sinners

The Electric State

Frankenstein

Jurassic World Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Superman

Tron: Ares

Wicked: For Good

86

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Which film will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jan 6, 1:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

111349

OptionProbability

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

The Secret Agent

Train Dreams

Frankenstein

It Was Just an Accident

Wicked: For Good

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Bugonia

No Other Choice

Jay Kelly

Weapons

The Testament of Ann Lee

Other

71

17

4

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

885

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

What will be true about the Oscar Best Picture winner at the 98th Academy Awards? (Films from 2025) [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 3, 4:21 AMMar 21, 3:59 AM

14571

OptionProbability

120 minutes or longer

Four or more producers listed on wikipedia

$100M or more at box office

135 min or longer

145 min or longer

budget was $50M or more

passes the bechdel test

box office return was at least 2x budget (according to wikipedia)

Male lead actor

Three or more people representing the film on stage during acceptance speech

Budget $150M or more

Female director

300M or more global box office

Distributed by A24

Title has only one word

93

90

83

74

74

74

74

66

52

50

50

39

34

33

22

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.25%chance

7105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

109

Will the 2026 Academy Award for Best Picture go to a film produced by any of Netflix, Amazon, or Apple?

Jan 12, 12:32 AMMar 17, 11:59 PM

33.27%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

271

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