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Prediction markets for Best Film

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.83%chance

292683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

753

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?

Feb 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171082

OptionProbability

>5bn

>8bn

>10bn

>16bn

> 20bn

> 30bn

89

87

79

70

47

29

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

885

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

What will be the title/focus of the next Star Wars film? (Releasing 05/22/26)

Oct 20, 4:10 AMMay 24, 5:59 AM

13394

OptionProbability

Dave Filoni’s The Mandalorian movie

“Dawn of the Jedi”

Rey’s New Jedi Order movie

66

34

33

Major Worm adaptation before 2040? (Movie/TV/Show)

Jun 23, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.44%chance

7348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

632

16

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.15%chance

10280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

71

Will Timothee Chalamet win an Oscar before 2030?

Mar 16, 10:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

10192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

More Avatar movies vs more Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T before end of 2030?

Dec 17, 8:20 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6181

OptionProbability

More Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T

More Avatar movies in Top 10 WW A-T

Other

63

28

8

When will Paul Thomas Anderson’s next feature film be released?

Apr 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 2:16 AM

365

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030 or later

Never / no future films

Before 2028

25

25

25

17

8

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