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Prediction markets for Best Film

Which Oscar nominations will "The Odyssey" receive?

Jul 21, 1:21 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

388985

OptionProbability

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Film Editing

Best Cinematography

Best Original Score

Best Actor - Matt Damon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Sound

Best Casting

Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway

Best Costume Design

Best Visual Effects

Best Supporting Actress - Samantha Morton

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Production Design

Best Supporting Actor - John Leguizamo

Best Original Song

Best Supporting Actor - Robert Pattinson

Best Supporting Actor - Himesh Patel

Best Supporting Actor - Tom Holland

97

97

94

92

91

90

88

87

85

85

82

80

74

71

65

55

26

25

12

9

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

395457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

327

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

182632

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2026

2029

53

17

16

12

10

Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at Oscars 2027?

Apr 5, 7:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

47%chance

441969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

885

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

26%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

907

"Gods Don’t Give Gifts" (upcoming AI-generated theatrically released feature film) prop bets

Oct 7, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8438

OptionProbability

>$1m domestic box office

>=30% Rotten Tomatoes critics score

Eligible for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars

>=60% Rotten Tomatoes critics score

Nominated for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars

49

47

43

24

5

Major Worm adaptation before 2040? (Movie/TV/Show)

Jun 23, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.44%chance

7348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

632

16

More Avatar movies vs more Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T before end of 2030?

Dec 17, 8:20 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7290

OptionProbability

More Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T

More Avatar movies in Top 10 WW A-T

Other

89

8

3

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.15%chance

10280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

71

Square Enix Stock

Apr 12, 1:13 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

3107

OptionProbability

YES

NO

91

83

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