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OptionProbability
He leaves Argentina during his first term
He travels to Chile during his first term
He travels to Brazil during his first term
He is photographed with Elon Musk
A photo of him with Trump is released
A photo of Milei with Biden is released
His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position
Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?
Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better
He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released
His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]
Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]
Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39
Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%
According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]
Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?
He wins reelection to a 2nd term
There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.
A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]
LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?
Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place
LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?
He travels to Bolivia
Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish
Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term
He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX
Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup
Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)
He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal
Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]
Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees
US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina
He goes incommunicado for at least a week
Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)
He marries during his first term
He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term
He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week
He officially converts to Judaism
He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it
Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup
Will he ever be TIME person of the year?
Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years
There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired
He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]
He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]
Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)
Argentina will win the 2026 world cup
He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]
The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office
The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use
He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office
He travels to Russia during his first term
Argentina will declare war
He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election
He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash
Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?
He has a child during his first term
He is excommunicated by the catholic church
He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]
He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash
He passes away during his first term before completion
There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side
Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week
Will Argentina join BRICS?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
86
85
84
83
82
78
71
70
65
63
63
56
55
55
50
48
45
45
43
40
40
38
38
36
34
31
31
29
28
26
26
25
25
23
22
22
21
20
20
17
13
13
12
11
11
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
100
91
89
88
82
79
73
71
71
65
63
63
58
53
50
48
47
45
44
44
44
42
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
38
37
36
36
34
34
31
31
31
28
27
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
19
18
18
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
4897
736
OptionVotes
YES
NO
141
71
OptionVotes
NO
YES
102
98
