Best Idea News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.01%chance

21801950278

OptionVotes

YES

4995

3773

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

16300

14168

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

15423

3517

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

606627

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

293545

OptionVotes

YES

1739

702

How to get rid of a nicotine addiction in one month?

Nov 28, 1:25 PMJun 23, 9:59 PM

73328

OptionProbability

Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7

Work with a professional

Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise

Altoids Smalls And Cold Water

Watch Huberman podcast: https://youtu.be/uXs-zPc63kM

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

YES

1100

941

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]

May 26, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

OptionProbability

Temporary

What is the best way to introduce the idea of Caesar Ciphers to children?

Jul 12, 3:30 PMJul 13, 6:59 AM

Best Idea News

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

How to get rid of a nicotine addiction in one month?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]

What is the best way to introduce the idea of Caesar Ciphers to children?

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