Best Idea News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44%chance

20801818790

OptionVotes

YES

4895

3850

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.66%chance

489714897

OptionVotes

YES

15994

15549

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

586526

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Jun 5, 12:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.18%chance

435831

OptionVotes

YES

1750

589

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

10173

3993

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

293545

OptionVotes

YES

1739

702

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.53%chance

422182

OptionVotes

YES

1151

694

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.9%chance

151455

OptionVotes

YES

1310

766

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

What is the best way to introduce the idea of Caesar Ciphers to children?

Jul 12, 3:30 PMJul 13, 6:59 AM

Best Idea News

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

What is the best way to introduce the idea of Caesar Ciphers to children?

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