Best Idea News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50%chance

22232047983

OptionVotes

YES

4343

4339

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.93%chance

506724947

OptionVotes

YES

16828

12117

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9319174

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2035+

2030

2031

2026

2032

2033

2034

2025

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.39%chance

2112795

OptionVotes

YES

13866

3633

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

2103

477

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

606627

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

293545

OptionVotes

YES

1739

702

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

YES

1679

610

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

YES

994

Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]

May 26, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

OptionProbability

Temporary

What books/reading will I enjoy? [ADD ANSWERS]

Sep 12, 5:05 AMSep 11, 5:01 AM

OptionProbability

(Reserved 1)

(Reserved 2)

(Reserved 3)

(Reserved 4)

What is the best way to introduce the idea of Caesar Ciphers to children?

Jul 12, 3:30 PMJul 13, 6:59 AM

Best Idea News

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Prediction markets for Best Idea

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Will we get an "ought" from an "is" before 2030?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]

What books/reading will I enjoy? [ADD ANSWERS]

What is the best way to introduce the idea of Caesar Ciphers to children?

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