OptionProbability
Any model announced before 2030
Any model announced before 2029
Any model announced before 2028
Any open-weights model announced before 2030
Any model announced before 2027
Grok 5
Any Claude 5 model
Gemini 3
OpenAI o4
Any model announced before 2026
GPT-5
DeepSeek-V4
Claude 3.5 Opus
Grok 3
OpenAI o3
Llama 4
GPT-4.5
Gemini 2.5
Any Claude 4 model
grok-4
85
82
80
77
62
41
36
35
29
25
23
17
13
0
2027
2028
2026
2025
2024
9
7
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1206
796
Explain "Krantz" thoroughly enough on the internet, that the idea itself becomes alive and takes over the world.
Solve education
Other
Travel to the Network State School
Go to LessOnline and Manifest
Go to Contact in the Desert.
Go to the Monroe Institute.
Work for society library.
Focus on finding a life partner
Recieve a grant to create an open-source home school program where parents and kids work collectively to create lessons and earn crypto credentials.
Start a podcast with livestream forecasting and collective reasoning.
Go on Lex Fridman and explain how to solve the control problem by solving education.
Publish an alignment plan
Find a new job
Travel to a new country
Learn a new language
Go on Liv Boeree's Win/Win podcast and explain how to kill Moloch by solving the control problem, by solving education.
Join or start an intentional living community of the rationalist variety.
Write a book
Code a indie video game
Start a religion that worships math, logic and constitutions of propositions as mechanisms that optimize communication, which is good. A Kant cult.
Run for political office as an open source Manchurian candidate that acts in accordance with how the network state votes.
Play poker professionally.
Take blog writing seriously.
28
22
6
5
4
3
1