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OptionProbability
He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released
He leaves Argentina during his first term
He travels to Chile during his first term
He travels to Brazil during his first term
He is photographed with Elon Musk
A photo of him with Trump is released
A photo of Milei with Biden is released
His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position
Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?
Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]
Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better
His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]
Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39
Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%
According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]
There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.
He wins reelection to a 2nd term
A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him
Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]
LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place
LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?
He travels to Bolivia
Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term
Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup
Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)
He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal
He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX
Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees
Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]
He goes incommunicado for at least a week
Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)
Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish
He marries during his first term
He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term
US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina
He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week
There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired
He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it
Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup
Will he ever be TIME person of the year?
He officially converts to Judaism
Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years
He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]
He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]
Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)
Argentina will win the 2026 world cup
He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]
The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office
The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use
He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office
He travels to Russia during his first term
Argentina will declare war
He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election
He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash
Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?
He has a child during his first term
He is excommunicated by the catholic church
He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]
He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash
He passes away during his first term before completion
There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side
Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week
Will Argentina join BRICS?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
86
86
84
83
78
71
70
63
60
56
56
55
50
48
48
45
45
40
38
38
36
34
31
30
29
28
27
26
26
26
25
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
17
13
13
12
11
11
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
2035
2032
2030
2029
2028
2027
70
52
39
30
19
7
OptionProbability
Sinners
One Battle after Another
Frankenstein
Bugonia
Hamnet
86
6
3
3
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1672
598
OptionProbability
A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)
Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model
METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”
A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)
The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason
Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model
US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI
OpenAI announces it has "achieved AGI" in the manner legally relevant for its agreement with Microsoft
75
61
54
50
48
46
31
24