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Prediction markets for Best Picture Oscar

Best Picture winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 1:51 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

4334863

OptionProbability

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Frankenstein

Sentimental Value

Train Dreams

The Secret Agent

Bugonia

F1

69

18

6

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

What movie will win Best Picture? 🏆|🎬 2026 Oscars

Mar 3, 3:58 AMMar 9, 3:59 AM

3515379

OptionProbability

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Frankenstein

The Roses

Michael

Mother Mary

The History of Sound

After the Hunt

Eddington

The Lost Bus

Highest 2 Lowest

Avatar: Fire and Ash

The Ballad of a Small Player

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Wicked: For Good

Train Dreams

69

20

6

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Mar 6, 3:28 AMMar 5, 4:59 AM

347921

OptionProbability

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Other

K-Pop Demon Hunters

Dune 2

The Substance

zootopia 2

Jurassic world rebirth

Frankenstein

Avatar 3

Highest 2 Lowest

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Wicked: For Good

Sentimental Value

It was just an accident

Weapons

69

18

6

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

1821

Will K-Pop Demon Hunters win the Oscar for Best Picture in 2026?

Nov 22, 12:42 AMMar 16, 10:59 PM

1%chance

3895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will a Bollywood or other Indian cinema movie win Best Picture at the Oscars / Academy Awards before the end of 2050?

Mar 25, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.35%chance

22616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

808

What will be true about the Oscar Best Picture winner at the 98th Academy Awards? (Films from 2025) [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 3, 4:21 AMMar 21, 3:59 AM

14571

OptionProbability

120 minutes or longer

Four or more producers listed on wikipedia

$100M or more at box office

135 min or longer

145 min or longer

budget was $50M or more

passes the bechdel test

box office return was at least 2x budget (according to wikipedia)

Male lead actor

Three or more people representing the film on stage during acceptance speech

Budget $150M or more

Female director

300M or more global box office

Distributed by A24

Title has only one word

93

90

83

74

74

74

74

66

52

50

50

39

34

33

22

'One Battle After Another' wins Best Picture Oscar?

Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.47%chance

11548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

98

Does One Battle After Another have what it takes to win Best Picture at the 98th Oscars?

Jan 9, 10:20 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

69%chance

6417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026)

Mar 11, 5:29 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

74.72%chance

7277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

331

127

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2026 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2027)

Mar 11, 5:29 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

61%chance

589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

138

Will the eventual Best Picture winner also win Best Director at the 2026 Oscars?

Jan 24, 2:40 AMMar 15, 11:59 PM

65%chance

236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

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