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Prediction markets for Best Team

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 2:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1516440

OptionProbability

87.5% to 97.5% (35-39 tasks)

75% to 85% (30-34 tasks)

62.5% to 72.5% (25-29 tasks)

100% (40 tasks)

50% to 60% (20-24 tasks)

47.5% or less (0-19 tasks)

32

24

19

13

8

4

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

37.29%chance

2515523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

437

Will the Dodgers have the best record in the MLB in 2025? ⚾️🧢🏆

Sep 28, 11:32 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

40.55%chance

1510466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

826

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

868873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

1387

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.03%chance

545201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

563

What MLB team will have the best win/loss record in baseball for the 2025 season

Feb 12, 5:37 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

222856

OptionProbability

Los Angeles Dodgers

Detroit Tigers

Chicago Cubs

New York Mets

Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros

New York Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies

Boston Red Sox

Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Atlanta Braves

Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Seattle Mariners

St. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay Rays

Athletics

Baltimore Orioles

Chicago White Sox

Cincinnati Reds

Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Angels

Miami Marlins

Minnesota Twins

Pittsburgh Pirates

Texas Rangers

Washington Nationals

33

16

9

9

7

4

4

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which team in the NL West will finish the 2025 MLB regular season with the best win-loss record?

Apr 24, 3:44 AMOct 5, 11:59 PM

8521

OptionProbability

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

87

14

13

2

1

Will my Pokemon AI win its Nat Dex Monotype Gauntlet?

Dec 30, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

3205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Which NFL team will have the best regular season record in 2025?

May 13, 3:03 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

4160

OptionProbability

Buffalo Bills

Detroit Lions

Other

Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

24

24

20

15

6

6

6

Would Anthropic win in Starcraft2 match between the best players of the Anthropic team and those of the OpenAI team?

Mar 12, 7:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.67%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

97

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