Best Website News

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

YES

1081

564

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138716

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?

Jul 6, 5:51 AMApr 15, 11:59 PM

16.73%chance

376458

OptionVotes

YES

2273

653

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

251885

OptionVotes

YES

1481

722

Will the aetiology of autism be determined by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 3:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.06%chance

221644

OptionVotes

YES

2388

884

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

39.03%chance

15395

OptionVotes

YES

1072

946

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

491

223

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

YES

994

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

Jan 10, 3:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3171

OptionProbability

I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

Will we have 20+ this year?

Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

Will we meet in the library at least once?

Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

100

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.34%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

279

171

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

151

What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.

Jul 24, 12:28 AMJan 1, 6:00 PM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

120

Best Website News

Prediction markets for Best Website

Prediction markets for Best Website

Prediction markets for Best Website

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will the aetiology of autism be determined by the end of 2026?

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.

Latest stories