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Prediction markets for Best Website

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

53.18%chance

3422942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

258

Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?

Jul 6, 5:51 AMApr 15, 11:59 PM

16.16%chance

5315044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2329

642

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

251885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

722

Will the aetiology of autism be determined by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 3:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.06%chance

221644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2388

884

What AI research assistant(s) should I use?

Oct 27, 12:06 AMNov 26, 1:02 AM

61196

OptionProbability

Elicit AI

Undermind

You.com

Perplexity

22

22

21

17

Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct?

Aug 23, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.94%chance

12682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

33

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

39.03%chance

15395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

946

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

How iGaming SEO Helps Improve Search Rankings and Drive Organic Traffic

Oct 27, 9:49 AMDec 31, 9:49 AM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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