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Prediction markets for Best Website

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

25%chance

2720620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

700

Novak Djokovic participates in the Australian Open 2026 main draw

Sep 7, 3:20 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

92.96%chance

102650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3634

275

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

292566

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

72

56

32

11

0

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.78%chance

201532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

734

Will the aetiology of autism be determined by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 3:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

221144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1888

902

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Aug 6, 1:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14914

OptionProbability

No TAC, keep the queries

Keep the TAC, keep the queries

No TAC, lose the queries

Keep the TAC, lose the queries

38

34

17

11

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.27%chance

8122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

275

169

Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.23%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

153

Will the Harlem Globetrotters lose again before Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 14, 12:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.43%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

125

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