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Prediction markets for Best Website

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

29.46%chance

3021098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

582

What will be the best performance on EnigmaEval by December 31st 2026?

Feb 17, 8:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42517

OptionProbability

30 - 40%

40 - 50%

20 - 30%

50 - 60%

60 - 70%

70 - 80%

10 - 20%

80 - 90%

90 - 100%

0 - 10%

24

20

15

13

9

7

4

4

3

1

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

23.97%chance

111852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1781

562

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Will the aetiology of autism be determined by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 3:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

221144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1888

902

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.93%chance

11255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

344

223

How far will my tech startup NiceGit progress by July 2026?

Dec 13, 1:03 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

5193

OptionProbability

Beta launch with >100 non-paying users

Beta launch with >1,000 non-paying users

Raise investment of $100k-$2m

> $100k in Annual Recurring Revenue

Raise investment of >$2m

> $1m in Annual Recurring Revenue

66

41

41

23

7

5

Who will win the Amstel Gold Race Ladies Edition (Women) 2026?

Apr 25, 12:21 PMApr 18, 10:59 PM

5191

OptionProbability

Demi Vollering

Puck Pieterse

Other

Lotte Kopecky

👑 Anna van der Breggen

Shirin van Anrooij

Elisa Longo Borghini

Katarzyna Niewiadoma

Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig

Lorena Wiebes

Mischa Bredewold

Évita Muzic

32

21

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

52.08%chance

8132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

178

Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.23%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

153

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