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Prediction markets for Best Website

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

564

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138716

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

74

59

45

0

Will the aetiology of autism be determined by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 3:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.06%chance

221644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2388

884

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

How far will my tech startup NiceGit progress by July 2026?

Dec 13, 1:03 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

9471

OptionProbability

Beta launch with >100 non-paying users

Raise investment of $100k-$2m

Beta launch with >1,000 non-paying users

> $100k in Annual Recurring Revenue

Raise investment of >$2m

> $1m in Annual Recurring Revenue

72

17

15

14

3

1

Will the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare

Dec 24, 2:37 AMDec 24, 2:34 AM

13.98%chance

16358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

200

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

96

Will climate geoengineering get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 7:29 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.26%chance

10185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

352

203

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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