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BET Awards News

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

382394775

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

Xian-Jin Li

Yu Deng

John Pardon

Other

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Sam Raskin

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

Matteo Verni

Jiaoyang Huang

22

17

13

11

10

6

5

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

Apr 7, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

289428

OptionProbability

Other

Harry Kane

Kylian Mbappé

Lamine Yamal

Michael Olise

Erling Haaland

Vinícius Júnior

Jude Bellingham

Florian Wirtz

Phil Foden

Bukayo Saka

Rodri

Kevin De Bruyne

Ousmane Dembélé

30

25

18

8

8

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

Dec 26, 12:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.59%chance

454012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2813

277

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.96%chance

573575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1536

792

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?

Apr 9, 7:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91012

OptionProbability

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang-Mills & The Mass Gap

Hodge Conjecture

P vs NP

85

85

85

82

67

Navier Stonks (ie Will the prize for the resolution of the Navier-Stokes millenium problem be taken ?)

Apr 9, 12:13 PMApr 16, 9:59 PM

83%chance

18871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

539

181

Will the first fully AI-refereed soccer match take place before 2040?

Apr 9, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.55%chance

5628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

857

51

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6572

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

27

21

16

12

7

6

6

6

Will a country in IMO 2026 wins this same award for 6 delegations?

Jun 21, 1:50 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

3237

OptionProbability

Gold Medal

Honourable Mention

Bronze Medal

Silver Medal

Perfect Score

74

30

17

11

5

David Walliams publicly disgraced by 2027

Dec 19, 11:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.5%chance

4178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

951

Setagaya Family Murder Solved by EOY2030?

Jun 22, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

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