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Prediction markets for BETA Reasoning

GPT 5.6 released by…?

May 18, 3:17 AMDec 31, 2:14 AM

5645462

OptionProbability

11.59pm ET December 31 2026

11.59pm ET July 31 2026

11.59pm ET July 15 2026

11.59pm ET July 23 2026

11.59pm ET July 7 2026

11.59pm ET June 30 2026

11.59pm ET June 22 2026

11.59pm ET May 31 2026

11.59pm ET June 7 2026

11.59pm ET June 15 2026

95

93

91

90

89

8

1

0

0

0

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

7216343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

490

By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?

Dec 7, 5:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

485266

OptionProbability

No

Yes

64

36

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96%chance

221132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Will I be able to purchase a house robot by the end of 2026?

Mar 13, 4:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.21%chance

18428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

85

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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