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Big Ear News

    Prediction markets for Big Ear

    Where will the epicenter of next big earthquake be located (countries only)?

    Feb 18, 2:35 AMFeb 25, 4:59 AM
    191525

    OptionProbability

    Russia

    Other

    Indonesia

    USA

    Japan

    your mom

    Chili

    Peru

    Mexico

    China

    India

    Afghanistan

    Iran

    Canada

    82

    7

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    When will the Big One earthquake happen in the San Andreas Fault?

    Jan 11, 3:14 PMJan 18, 10:59 PM
    51097

    OptionProbability

    2040 or after

    2030-2034

    2035-2039

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2029

    61

    10

    10

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

    Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    18620

    OptionProbability

    The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

    The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

    The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

    Signal has detectable modulation

    The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

    Signal contains an encoded message

    The signal has natural terrestrial origins

    The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

    The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

    Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

    The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

    The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

    Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

    79

    57

    52

    46

    44

    44

    43

    38

    35

    34

    22

    16

    12

    What will be Earth’s GDP in year 3000 in units of Big Macs?

    Aug 18, 2:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    9548

    OptionProbability

    Over 10^18 Big Macs

    10^12-10^15 Big Macs

    0 Big Macs

    10^15-10^18 Big Macs

    1-10^9 Big Macs

    10^9- 10^12 Big Macs

    28

    19

    18

    18

    9

    8

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