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Big Five News

    Prediction markets for Big Five

    At the end of One Piece, which five pirates will have the highest recorded bounties of all time?

    Dec 28, 11:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    21838058

    OptionProbability

    Monkey D Luffy

    Baggy

    Buggy the Clown

    Roronoa Zoro

    Blackbeard / Marshall D Teach

    Red Hair Shanks

    Gol D Roger

    Rocks D. Xebec

    Eustass Kid

    Mihawk

    Monkey D Dragon

    Usopp

    Sanji

    Nico Robin

    Trafalgar D. Water Law

    Whitebeard / Edward Newgate

    Kaido

    Edward weevil

    Tony Tony Chopper

    Big Mom / Charlotte Linlin

    Franky

    Crocodile

    Mr 4 / Babe

    Lucky Roux

    91

    50

    50

    46

    45

    42

    41

    40

    39

    32

    31

    28

    28

    20

    19

    17

    13

    13

    11

    6

    6

    5

    3

    1

    Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

    Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
    95.71%chance
    577515

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    4802

    504

    Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

    Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
    143479

    OptionProbability

    L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

    T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

    T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

    T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

    B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

    T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

    T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

    T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

    Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

    T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

    E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

    O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

    H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

    D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

    V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

    S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

    Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

    N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

    C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

    U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

    W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

    X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

    R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

    S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

    E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

    J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

    M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

    I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

    P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

    G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

    D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

    A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

    D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

    E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

    F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

    K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

    100

    63

    60

    59

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    47

    46

    46

    42

    41

    34

    32

    30

    29

    27

    27

    27

    27

    25

    25

    24

    21

    21

    19

    17

    8

    6

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    S&P 500 closing price end of September? (20 mana bonus, read description)

    Sep 4, 4:03 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM
    232184

    OptionProbability

    Above 7,550

    Above 7,650

    Above 7,750

    Above 7,850

    Above 7,950

    85

    59

    38

    22

    11

    Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

    Jan 15, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    31.14%chance
    490

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    160

    110

    Will at least 2 Big 12 teams make the 2026-2027 College Football Playoff

    Sep 20, 3:44 PMDec 6, 11:59 PM
    39.87%chance
    352

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    123

    81

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