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Big Ideas News

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.18%chance

29434211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3974

3134

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

95.71%chance

577515

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4802

504

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

How many times will my friend and I die in Outward?

May 19, 1:30 AMJan 1, 2:06 AM

122950

OptionProbability

50+ Deaths

20+ Wipes

100+ Deaths

[Our campaign ends with us having beat the game]

4:1 or more Deaths:Wipes (this would be good!)

Any 3+ hour session with 0 Deaths and Wipes

Pat has more deaths than Friend

10+ Deaths and Wipes against a single instance of an enemy or boss

A session with triple back-to-back wipes (no deaths between)

Pat or friend has 2x more deaths than the other

200+ Deaths

50+ Wipes

8:1 or more Deaths:Wipes (I wish)

500+ Deaths

100+ Wipes

100

100

100

100

86

75

35

33

32

20

17

15

11

4

3

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

742947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1774

956

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

31.97%chance

431883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

197

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

37%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

00

What books/reading will I enjoy? [ADD ANSWERS]

Sep 12, 5:05 AMSep 11, 5:01 AM

00

OptionProbability

(Reserved 1)

(Reserved 2)

(Reserved 3)

(Reserved 4)

50

50

50

50

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