Big Law News

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

2783

1747

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

YES

1439

697

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

When will we know the nature of dark matter?

May 12, 10:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30611

OptionProbability

Before 2052

Before 2048

Before 2044

Before 2040

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Feb 26, 12:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

65.25%chance

6583

OptionVotes

YES

1370

730

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32%chance

8153

OptionVotes

YES

123

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

184

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

4122

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?

Nov 2, 12:56 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

26.83%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

165

Big Law News

Prediction markets for Big Law

Prediction markets for Big Law

Prediction markets for Big Law

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

When will we know the nature of dark matter?

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Artemis 4 Launch Year

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?

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