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Prediction markets for Big Law

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

592297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

When will we know the nature of dark matter?

May 12, 10:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29600

OptionProbability

Before 2052

Before 2048

Before 2044

Before 2040

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

59

46

40

33

27

16

10

Can negative mass exist?

Dec 2, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

94

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?

Nov 2, 12:56 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

26.18%chance

484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

60

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

135

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