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Prediction markets for Big Law

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

8710064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

262608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1396

719

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

When will we know the nature of dark matter?

May 12, 10:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30611

OptionProbability

Before 2052

Before 2048

Before 2044

Before 2040

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

55

46

40

33

27

18

10

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Feb 26, 12:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

65.25%chance

6583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

37%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32%chance

8153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

98

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?

Nov 2, 12:56 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

26.83%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

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