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Top stories

Trump Pressure Spurs Big Law Retreat From Government Challenges

Trump Pressure Spurs Big Law Retreat From Government Challenges

Authors

4

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Big Law

Will the US move forward with constructing the "Golden Dome" in 2025?

Jun 22, 1:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.59%chance

4825402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15502

65

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

372766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

796

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

When will we know the nature of dark matter?

May 12, 10:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29600

OptionProbability

Before 2052

Before 2048

Before 2044

Before 2040

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

59

46

40

33

27

16

10

Can negative mass exist?

Dec 2, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

94

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

143

US remittance tax becomes law by December 31, 2025

Jun 5, 8:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.97%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Teach me how to test my code

Feb 16, 11:31 AM

00

If Aliens Experience More Meaningful Lives Than us, Ought we Accept Our Demise? (Read Description)

Apr 16, 6:00 PM

130

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Jul 31, 2025
Jul 31, 2025
US Judiciary
Law
Politics
Trump Pressure Spurs Big Law Retreat From Government Challenges
Authors
4
2 days ago

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