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Prediction markets for Big Money

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2744804

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

32

32

30

27

26

25

25

25

24

24

24

23

18

16

15

13

11

5

5

5

3

Will I talk with a whale by 2027? 🐳

Sep 28, 10:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.07%chance

7613576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

853

Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-helium-3 fusion before 2026?

Jul 11, 12:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.41%chance

4712674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4341

548

Is Polymarket more accurate than Manifold at p<0.05?

Apr 15, 9:42 AMSep 30, 9:39 AM

59.76%chance

14010234

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

821

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

44.86%chance

372816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

846

Will I eventually make USACO Camp

Oct 26, 10:14 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.76%chance

142067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

730

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.38%chance

568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

Jun 10, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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