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Prediction markets for Big Money

Will I talk with a whale by 2027? 🐳

Sep 28, 10:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.22%chance

8414569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1558

927

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

517

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will I eventually make USACO Camp

Oct 26, 10:14 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

19%chance

243944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2065

484

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Feb 26, 12:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

65.25%chance

6583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

70

53

51

37

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Jul 18, 6:19 AMJul 25, 6:59 AM

27.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2040?

Jun 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

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