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Prediction markets for BIOS

When will an AI-assisted bio-attack first result in at least 1,000,000 deaths?

Jan 24, 7:28 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

434250

OptionProbability

Never or after or including 2045

2030-2035

2035-2040

2025-2030

2040-2045

Now - 2025

63

21

7

4

4

1

Someone from PEA Class of 2027 will make bio camp this year

Sep 26, 10:03 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

53%chance

112992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)

Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

951

Will I make Bio Camp (USABO T20) 2026?

Oct 25, 1:45 AMMay 1, 10:59 PM

32.52%chance

25849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Alien Greys Proven to be synthetic bio beings by 2030

Jun 7, 6:48 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.72%chance

5281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

53

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will annual copper production from bio-leaching of primary sulfides exceed 10 kt by end of 2028?

Feb 9, 8:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

31.78%chance

7123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

632

525

Will a 3D bio-printed steak be sold from a restaurant for <$100 by EOY 2029?

Aug 11, 8:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

56.76%chance

682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

77

Will Tomorrow Bio exist or have continuity with another organisation in 10 years?

Jun 21, 11:17 AMJun 21, 11:59 PM

63%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

72

Will Tomorrow Bio exist or have continuity with another organisation in 20 years?

Jul 4, 11:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.74%chance

443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

Will we have bios of >20 of the Thiel Fellows by EOY2050?

Jan 4, 9:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will bits in bio slack (bitsinbio.slack.com) finally upgrade so people can have access to more than 90 days, by EOY2027?

Apr 27, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.32%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

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