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Prediction markets for Birthright Citizenship

How many Supreme Court justices will vote that Trump's birthright citizenship executive order is unconstitutional?

Jan 21, 11:11 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

17150399

OptionProbability

7

6

8

9

5

4 or fewer

39

19

17

10

10

6

Will courts overturn Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship?

Jan 25, 6:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.79%chance

7415406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3139

319

Will birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?

Nov 7, 11:10 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

14.34%chance

579611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2444

409

Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?

Jan 21, 3:54 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

80.09%chance

656310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

50

What month will the Supreme Court rule on birthright citizenship?

Apr 3, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

172483

OptionProbability

June 2026

July 2026

May 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026 or later

April 2026

Other

51

24

6

4

4

4

4

1

1

Will birthright citizenship stop being available in the USA before 2028?

Aug 27, 5:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.43%chance

302456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

966

946

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.13%chance

262011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

967

923

Will Trump succeed in revoking the citizenship of any birthright US citizen?

Jul 13, 3:36 PMJan 10, 7:59 AM

30%chance

191329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will birthright citizenship stop being available in the USA before 2035?

Aug 27, 5:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15%chance

241077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

648

Will birthright citizenship stop being available in the USA before 2050?

Aug 27, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

9402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

103

Puerto Ricans lose birthright citizenship during Trump II

Oct 2, 1:37 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

13.79%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

7104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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