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Prediction markets for Bitcoin Dollar

Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.72%chance

204335370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

885

Will Bitcoin ever go below $1,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:22 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.5%chance

5553991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

739

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7745148

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

British Pound (GBP)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Manifold Mana

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Paperclips

TRUMP

63

31

24

20

9

8

8

8

8

7

6

5

5

4

3

2

At any point before the end of 2030, will 1 bitcoin be worth over $1M?

Apr 3, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

348004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

865

Will Bitcoin ever go below $50,000 again?

Jun 15, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:18 AM

85.23%chance

276645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2402

416

What will the price of Bitcoin in US dollars be at the end of 2030?

Feb 15, 11:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25%chance

223218

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1088

816

Will Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency replace the US Dollar by 2030?

Sep 1, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.5%chance

111727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

591

115

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Feb 19, 7:54 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

21%chance

181386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will the US Dollar ever be backed by Bitcoin?

Jul 19, 3:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.66%chance

7785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

127

Over the course of which years will Bitcoin increase in value?

Nov 21, 5:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4449

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

61

50

28

0

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

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