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Prediction markets for Bitcoin Dollar

Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.62%chance

188328265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

780

Will Bitcoin ever go below $1,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:22 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.48%chance

5453828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1937

721

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7443529

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Paperclips

Manifold Mana

TRUMP

57

31

24

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

At any point before the end of 2030, will 1 bitcoin be worth over $1M?

Apr 3, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

337939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1945

855

What will the price of Bitcoin in US dollars be at the end of 2030?

Feb 15, 11:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.79%chance

203065

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1096

813

Will Bitcoin ever go below $50,000 again?

Jun 15, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:18 AM

57.76%chance

151815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

855

Will Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency replace the US Dollar by 2030?

Sep 1, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.5%chance

101493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

115

Will the US Dollar ever be backed by Bitcoin?

Jul 19, 3:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.66%chance

7785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

127

Over the course of which years will Bitcoin increase in value?

Nov 21, 5:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3389

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

61

55

50

0

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

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