OptionVotes
YES
NO
1741
574
OptionProbability
Q4 2026 (October 1 - December 31, 2026)
Q3 2026 (July 1 - September 30, 2026)
Q2 2026 (April 1 - June 30, 2026)
Q1 2026 (by March 31, 2026)
51
28
17
4
169
59
Not broken by 2030
Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)
AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)
AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)
66
11
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