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Prediction markets for Bits AI

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1135

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69.99%chance

8526818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1527

655

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.87%chance

323717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

856

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

241806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

713

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sep 18, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

76.2%chance

6881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1789

559

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will 6G use AI in the physical layer before 2030?

Jan 20, 7:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.45%chance

15432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

837

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

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