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Black Hat News
Prediction markets for Black Hat
Prediction markets for Black Hat
By 2033 will we have seen a period of at least 24 months where there are no smart contract exploits "stealing" crypto?
Apr 25, 5:28 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
41.76%
chance
8
378
Option
Votes
NO
YES
167
86
Will Manifold take away my black hat within a week?
Mar 20, 12:12 AM
Mar 27, 12:08 AM
15.01%
chance
11
192
Option
Votes
YES
NO
238
42
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
Jun 1, 4:46 PM
Jan 1, 12:00 AM
80.41%
chance
9
192
Option
Votes
NO
YES
154
110
Will "The Lizardman and the Black Hat Bobcat" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 17, 12:51 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
13.4%
chance
2
63
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1045
993
Facebook's default group avatar configuration becomes more representative, by mid 2026
Feb 18, 8:46 PM
Jul 1, 6:59 AM
52.09%
chance
2
15
Option
Votes
NO
YES
104
96
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