Black Hat News
Prediction markets for Black Hat
By 2033 will we have seen a period of at least 24 months where there are no smart contract exploits "stealing" crypto?
Apr 25, 5:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
41.76%chance
8378
OptionVotes
167
86
Will Manifold take away my black hat within a week?
Mar 20, 12:12 AMMar 27, 12:08 AM
15.01%chance
11192
OptionVotes
238
42
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
Jun 1, 4:46 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
80.41%chance
9192
OptionVotes
154
110
Will "The Lizardman and the Black Hat Bobcat" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 17, 12:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.4%chance
263
OptionVotes
1045
993
Facebook's default group avatar configuration becomes more representative, by mid 2026
Feb 18, 8:46 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
52.09%chance
215
OptionVotes
104
96