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Prediction markets for Block

If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

39.9%chance

293307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6397

5150

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will any country block themselves from the internet before 2027?

Oct 16, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.55%chance

162025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2439

434

What will be the outcome of Chloe Happe's lawsuit (aka @bronzeageshawty) against Block that is funded by X?

Mar 29, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

161468

OptionProbability

They settle and it's considered a win for Chloe

Block wins

Chloe Happe wins

They settle and it's not considered a win for either

They settle and it's considered a win for Block

40

34

19

11

7

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

71135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2066

834

Apple blocks AirDrop (via Quick Share) from Android by 2028?

Nov 20, 10:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.99%chance

3260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will Joshua Block die before 2030?

Apr 7, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.95%chance

7214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

51

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.79%chance

12108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

992

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

How many countries will have status "Blocked" on Polymarket's geoblock list at the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

640

OptionProbability

33-34

35-36

37-38

31-32

39-40

1 - 30

41-195

17

17

17

13

13

12

11

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Jun 27, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.6%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

985

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