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Prediction markets for Blu

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8568735

Will Bluesky have 50 million users by September 2025? (~triple what it is mid-November)

Nov 14, 9:19 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

6.87%chance

12468309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3682

272

If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?

May 21, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:06 PM

2530231

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6016181

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

48

41

7

4

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

22.05%chance

518642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

258

Will Bluesky reach 50 million users by the end of this year?

Feb 4, 11:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.54%chance

261825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

80

Destiny's Blue Coat (permanent)

Feb 9, 1:26 PMFeb 9, 11:59 PM

72.27%chance

371629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

338

100

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.42%chance

141349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

525

Will a Manifold subscription include a "blue check"?

Jan 1, 1:45 AMDec 28, 12:32 PM

78.07%chance

251255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

895

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.98%chance

141009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

Major blunder in a physics paper attributed to AI by the end of 2025

Aug 29, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.23%chance

26855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

917

Will Dave Blunts die before 2027?

Jan 3, 4:05 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

40.78%chance

3205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

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