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Prediction markets for Blue Moon

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.39%chance

3611321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1851

541

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

28.55%chance

5610837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

326

Will Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost M2 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 11, 10:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.39%chance

151857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

85

When will Tsukihime -A piece of blue glass moon- be released for Windows?

Feb 11, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

101748

OptionProbability

2027 or later, or never

2026

2024

2025

69

29

2

1

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

Jan 19, 3:09 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

121707

OptionProbability

Other

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 16, 2:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

96.42%chance

81094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

491

23

Will Blue Moon land people on the moon before Starship HLS ?

May 30, 2:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18%chance

6619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

46

Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?

Jun 2, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.44%chance

11511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

On what rocket will Blue moon MK1-SN001 launch on?

Jun 4, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7405

OptionProbability

New Glenn

Falcon Heavy

SLS

Other

Ariane 6

Vulcan

Starship

40

36

6

5

4

4

4

Will Blue Origin beat SpaceX to land safely on the moon?

Jul 5, 5:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

78.77%chance

8349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

52

When will Blue Moon HLS make a successful uncrewed landing on the Moon?

Jun 20, 4:08 AMDec 31, 3:50 AM

4200

OptionProbability

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

Q1 2028

Q2 2027

Q2 2028

Q4 2030

Other

Q3 2028

Q3 2029

Blue Moon HLS Cancelled

Q2 2030

Q3 2030

Q4 2028

Q1 2030

Q1 2027

Q1 2029

Q2 2029

Q4 2029

10

10

10

7

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

2

Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin?

Apr 23, 10:54 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10183

OptionProbability

SpaceX

Blue Origin

Neither by December 31, 2032

56

28

16

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