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Prediction markets for Booster

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

80156184

OptionProbability

20

15

12

10

6

8

7

9

88

48

32

1

0

0

0

0

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

Jan 7, 4:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

195612

OptionProbability

By Dec 31, 2030

By Dec 31, 2028

By Dec 31, 2029

By Dec 31, 2027

By Dec 31, 2026

By Dec 31, 2025

99

98

98

92

68

20

Will the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 1:03 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

33.23%chance

174472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

705

When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse

Apr 10, 2:16 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

43069

OptionProbability

Before December 2026

Before December 2027

Before June 2026

Before January 2026

Before October 2025

Before July 2024

Before October 2024

Before January 2025

Before July 2025

Before April 2025

59

58

45

34

22

0

0

0

0

0

Will the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B?

Jan 24, 3:34 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

14.7%chance

62768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2409

415

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.39%chance

91330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

Which organisation will be the second after SpaceX to propulsively land an orbital class booster?

Mar 1, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

111024

OptionProbability

Blue Origin

Rocketlab

CNSA

Stoke Space

Relativity Space

48

35

14

2

2

Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?

May 9, 12:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.63%chance

20922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1667

856

Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025?

Apr 4, 3:05 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

31.83%chance

16904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1613

387

Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?

May 8, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.96%chance

19645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

934

Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?

Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74%chance

10233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

930

When will a non-SpaceX propulsively landed orbital booster be reflown for the first time?

Nov 29, 10:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7189

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

2031

2032+

28

28

12

11

7

5

4

4

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