OptionProbability
Arson
Murder
Genocide
2008 bank bailouts
two financial crimes
Sexual assault
Rape
Election fraud
financial crimes veiled as altruism
ballot harvesting
Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power
Racism against Asian people
Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off
Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you
Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight
financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent
offering drugs to a minor
stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic
Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders
Sacrificing a child to R'hllor
Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)
Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)
Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave
Lobbying congress to ban your competitors
buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you
Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes
Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars
Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)
Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played
Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner
Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft
Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants
Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors
Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.
marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them
Giving away free samples of meth at a school
Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.
Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime
Committing war crime.
Intensive pig farming
Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company
Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups
Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)
Firebombing a major city
Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.
Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power
Farming octopuses for food
Whatever is going on at Boeing
Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.
Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths
Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find
Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent
Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent
Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.
Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent
Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture
Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse
Octopi farming us for food
Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.
Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time
Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"
Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians
Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways
Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap
Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)
Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information
Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter
Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food
Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food
Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food
Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent
Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking
Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers
Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed
Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses
Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life
Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)
creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms
Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku
forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime
Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.
Octopus sex trafficking.
Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.
Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.
Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”
Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States
Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court
Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat
Selling pies made out of orphan meat.
Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.
Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.
Selling orphans fed only pie meat
Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos
Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms
Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.
Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.
Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation
Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat
Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn
Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime
Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.
Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws
Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect
Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack
Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.
Stealing a SpaceX Starship
Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.
Carjacking an old lady
Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so
Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses
Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse
Stealing the Declaration of Independence
Operating a child beauty pageant
Andrew Tate
Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time
Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger
Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them
A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains
Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution
Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.
The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.
Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.
Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.
Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas
Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land
Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death
Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths
Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person
Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.
Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.
Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.
Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself
Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself
Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries
Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.
Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.
A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.
Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.
As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.
Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC
Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.
Cannibalism in the current British Navy.
Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument
One hundred moving violations
Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons
Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain
Touching minors/ being a pedophile
Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts
Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war
Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.
Stealing Nicholas Cage
Gender "reparative therapy" of minors
Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract
Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime
Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)
Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them
The genocide in Gaza
Russia's genocide in Ukraine
Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes
Slavery
Grooming kids
Being the leader of a crime syndicate
9/11
Stranding two astronauts in space
Disturbing the space-time continuum
Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC
Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck
Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election
Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk
Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes
Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK
A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old
Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so
Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts
De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.
Sexual harassment
Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)
Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all
Killing the United Healthcare CEO
Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef
Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war
Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces
Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef
Sheltering enemies of the state
Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter
Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small
Weaponizing autism
Having a podcast
Yelling racial slurs in public
Jaywalking
Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.
Cheating on spouse
Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)
Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport
Income taxes
Copyright infringement
Romeo and Juliet relationships
Replying all to an email when you should've just replied
Welfare fraud
Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs
Grave robbery
Saying the N-word every day as a white person
Discrimination based on race
Discrimination based on sexual orientation
Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor
Having sex in public while high on fentanyl
Racism against black people
Racism against white people
Sleep Token (Band)
not seeding your torrents
Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event
Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies
Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy
Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).
Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.
Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich
Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work
hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation
opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day
twincest
drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors
Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions
working as a prostitute
hiring a prostitute
hiring a prostitute, long term
Inventing Monero
Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks
Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto
Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert
The most offensive Halloween costume ever
frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past
Doing blackface
Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes
Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued
the Asiana flight 214 prank
Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate
Cloning yourself
Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent
making mifeprestone available OTC
making adderall available OTC
Killing yourself
Cloning someone else
Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set
Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips
Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up
Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.
Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market
Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself
Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.
Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting
Calling octopuses "octopi"
Going excessively meta on an object-level topic
Illegally registering octopuses to vote
Registering illegals to vote for octopuses
Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime
The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes
"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister
Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime
Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it
Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.
Conducting gain-of-function research
Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade
Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through
Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content
Adding an option to a market right before it closes
Writing a "goto" statement when programming
Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods
Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"
Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.
Selling dope disguised as a nun.
Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life
Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually
Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies
Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024
Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.
Interrupting cows.
No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm
Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime
No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm
One moving violation.
Purchasing one whole chicken
Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation
Cattle rustling
Horse thievery
Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime
Sumptuary law violations
Homeopathy
Price Gouging
Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free
Failing to commit a financial crime
Stealing a car
Stealing from Elon Musk
Committing a financial crime against X (company)
Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.
Carjacking Elon Musk
An old lady carjacking Elon Musk
Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn
Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them
Carjacking a dumb octopus
A financial crime committed by an old lady
Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk
stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit
Raping an AI avatar in VR
Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.
Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds
Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower
Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove
Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse
Bad bagels
Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment
Still getting notifications for this market
Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.
Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.
scaring the shit out of a magpie
Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe
Committing sewerslide
Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.
Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person
Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning
Arby’s
Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.
Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.
Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation
Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation
Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse
Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists
Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument
Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away
Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards
Founding Christianity
You, the reader
One hundred counts of littering
Purchasing 500 pounds of beef
Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless
BTE Ban evading
Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef
Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.
Transing children
Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity
Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?
Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period
Messing up an 'I give you my heart' gesture and doing a Nazi salute instead
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OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
John McAfee didn't kill himself
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Human didnt evolve from apes
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
The CIA killed JFK
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
China made covid 19 in a lab
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
A cure for cancer has already been found
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
QAnon
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Bush did 9/11
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
China was not genociding Uyghurs
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
1154
931
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1977
397
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1998
618
OptionProbability
AI produces highly-customized forms of entertainment
AI is integrated into IDEs and provides suggestions to programmers
Other
Managers consult AI while making decisions
AI is used for drug discovery
AI designs hardware for industrial processes
AI is integrated into compilers and makes code run faster
AI chatbots provide mental health support, boosting productivity
37
22
22
11
5
2
1
0
OptionProbability
Paid subscription to get extra boost on your markets
Paid subscription to get cosmetics on your avatar/markets
Paid subscription to get cheaper question creation
Paid subscription to get larger/faster loans
Paid subscription to get priority/exclusive matches in match marking on Manifold.love
Paid subscription to get news feed provided by Manifold
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72
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52
36
24
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1050
992