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Prediction markets for Bored

Will Alex Bores be the 2026 Democratic candidate for NY-12?

Oct 20, 2:38 PMNov 6, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

277197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3431

2627

Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 10+ operational stations before 2030?

Jun 15, 9:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

63%chance

407050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1338

693

Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 20+ operational stations before 2030?

Jul 1, 8:12 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

44.93%chance

384102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

605

Will the Boring Company create 100,000 miles of tunnels before 2050?

May 6, 7:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.72%chance

503314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

884

Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

41.41%chance

702746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

986

Will the Boring Company create 1,000,000 miles of tunnels before 2050?

May 6, 7:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16%chance

232306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

951

Will the Boring Company create 10,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.7%chance

141095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2050?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

85.92%chance

19621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1441

887

Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Will the Boring Company create 1,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.52%chance

21472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

985

Will "The Boring Part of Bell Labs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 22, 9:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.53%chance

259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

750

Is Prometheum primarily a boring crypto grift with no significant political forces behind it?

Jun 22, 1:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.22%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

56

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