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Prediction markets for Bored

Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 10+ operational stations before 2030?

Jun 15, 9:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

72.59%chance

427380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

548

Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 20+ operational stations before 2030?

Jul 1, 8:12 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

44.93%chance

384102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

605

Will the Boring Company create 100,000 miles of tunnels before 2050?

May 6, 7:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.72%chance

503314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

884

Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 27, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

3.25%chance

62931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3885

802

Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

41.7%chance

712751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

991

Will the Boring Company create 1,000,000 miles of tunnels before 2050?

May 6, 7:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.17%chance

292642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

978

Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.7%chance

41225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

928

Will the Boring Company create 10,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.7%chance

141095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2050?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

85.92%chance

19621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1441

887

Will the Boring Company create 1,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64%chance

23527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

962

Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 21, 6:06 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.53%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

969

Will "The Boring Part of Bell Labs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 22, 9:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.53%chance

259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

750

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