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Prediction markets for Born This Way
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
7532370
OptionVotes
25533
3383
The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?
Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
372082
OptionProbability
67
9
9
6
5
4
Will a year without a "normal" human birth occur before 2050? [See Description]
Oct 30, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.31%chance
9273
OptionVotes
383
167
OptionProbability
68
21
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will the claim that people that grew up with GPT-like systems are smarter be plausible by 2050?
Mar 21, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
80.31%chance
10140
OptionVotes
250
100
What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?
Apr 8, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3108
OptionProbability
24
17
15
15
15
12
OptionProbability
72
64
50
41
39
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
51%chance
759
OptionVotes
156
143
Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?
Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
51.48%chance
230
OptionVotes
1035
976
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82