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Top stories

House Democrats Move to Honor Springsteen on ‘Born to Run’ 50th

House Democrats Move to Honor Springsteen on ‘Born to Run’ 50th

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Born to Run

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

1.89%chance

643044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

720

14

Will I ever be president of the USA

Feb 6, 12:15 AMFeb 13, 7:59 AM

1%chance

152622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2162

938

Will I ever run for president of the USA

Feb 6, 12:14 AMFeb 13, 7:59 AM

5.47%chance

162514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

958

Will George Soros live to see the 2029 US presidential inauguration?

Mar 23, 3:54 AMJan 20, 12:00 PM

56.11%chance

42460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

884

Will Daryl Morey win an NBA title as a team executive before 2035?

Feb 10, 8:50 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

46.26%chance

9986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

392

200

Will Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?

Oct 5, 6:36 PMDec 31, 7:32 PM

5.25%chance

5325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

24

Will Zach Wilson run for elected political office in the U.S. state of Utah before 2040?

Oct 2, 2:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.16%chance

8218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

95

Will there be a significant drop in number of births in Japan during the year of the fire horse?

Dec 30, 4:19 AMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

35.31%chance

9143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery?

Aug 27, 5:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

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