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Prediction markets for Bost

When will Boston Dynamics start selling their new Atlas humanoid robot to customers?

Apr 19, 11:39 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

165065

OptionProbability

2029 or later / Never

2027

2026

2028

2024

2025

40

27

16

15

1

1

Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?

Sep 20, 9:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.21%chance

291941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

928

Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 12, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.88%chance

281650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

946

Will 10% of Boston city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?

Jun 3, 3:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

1.99%chance

131061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

981

81

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.63%chance

39981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

850

Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Feb 4, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.65%chance

15419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

949

Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?

Jun 5, 8:40 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

8103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will commercial autonomous cars without human safety operators be illegal in Boston as of July 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 12:49 AMAug 3, 12:00 AM

59.37%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

297

297

Will June in Boston 2026 be one of the top 3 warmest Junes ever?

Jun 5, 4:47 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will "mass surveillance" in the United States happen by 2035? (cf Nick Bostrom)

Mar 14, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.66%chance

571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

145

Will Porter Square subway station in Boston install an air purifier to clean up its horrible air pollution by 2026?

Sep 11, 5:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.22%chance

311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

81

Will the Boston silver line from airport ever stop being free by 2035

Jul 31, 9:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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