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Prediction markets for Bost

When will Boston Dynamics start selling their new Atlas humanoid robot to customers?

Apr 19, 11:39 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

165065

OptionProbability

2029 or later / Never

2027

2026

2028

2024

2025

40

27

16

15

1

1

Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?

Sep 20, 9:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.21%chance

291941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

928

Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 12, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.88%chance

281650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

946

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.63%chance

39981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

850

Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Feb 4, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.65%chance

15419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

949

Will direct light rail/commuter rail line exist between Boston and Concord, NH OR Manchester, NH by EOY 2029?

Jan 27, 11:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.63%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

33

Will Boston have a 3 Michelin Star restaurant by the end of 2026?

May 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.68%chance

6175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

36

Will commercial autonomous cars without human safety operators be illegal in Boston as of July 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 12:49 AMAug 3, 12:00 AM

59.37%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

297

297

Will "mass surveillance" in the United States happen by 2035? (cf Nick Bostrom)

Mar 14, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.66%chance

571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

145

Will AI cause an existential catastrophe (Bostrom or Ord definition) which doesn't result in human extinction?

Nov 11, 7:35 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

25%chance

559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

101

Will MBTA trains on the Boston red line finally have PM2.5 levels lower than 10 ug/m^3 (like BART trains) by EOY 2027?

Jan 22, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.27%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

56

45

Will Boston-based bluebikes start equipping mirrors for rear view by EOY2027?

Apr 22, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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