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Will Eliud Kipchoge ever win the NYC or Boston marathon?

May 7, 1:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.8%chance

83299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1812

366

Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?

Sep 20, 9:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.21%chance

291941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

928

Which Boston restaurant(s) will get at least 1 Michelin Star by the end of March 2026?

May 14, 8:05 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

101940

OptionProbability

311 omakase

Deuxave

Celeste

Kaia

Astra

Ostra

O Ya

Urban Hearth

Brassica Kitchen + Cafe

Giulia

Sarma

Nightshade Noodle Bar

Oleana

Mahaniyom

Wa Shin

98

34

34

26

24

23

19

19

17

13

12

11

10

1

0

Will CEA publicly apologize for their response to the Nick Bostrom scandal by the end of 2025?

Apr 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.49%chance

151221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

885

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.63%chance

39981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

850

Will 10% of Boston city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?

Jun 3, 3:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

2.27%chance

12961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

881

83

Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Feb 4, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.27%chance

14414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

944

Will AI cause an existential catastrophe (Bostrom or Ord definition) which doesn't result in human extinction?

Nov 11, 7:35 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

25%chance

559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

101

will boston ban styrofoam takeout containers by EOY2026?

Sep 16, 6:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.77%chance

135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Will Boston's average dewpoint for JJA (summer) in 2025 be the highest average dewpoint of Boston ever?

Jul 15, 4:21 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

45.59%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will Boston-based bluebikes start equipping mirrors for rear view by EOY2027?

Apr 22, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the Boston silver line from airport ever stop being free by 2035

Jul 31, 9:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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