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Prediction markets for Break AI

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.24%chance

557504014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3531

1096

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.53%chance

15714816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2205

2197

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.51%chance

365026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3100

326

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

847

How many times will I cry emotionally to written work made entirely by an LLM before July 2026?

Oct 11, 4:53 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

48.3%chance

262546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

967

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

17783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.74%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

31

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

Sep 19, 7:41 PMJan 1, 8:25 PM

799

OptionProbability

Autonomous AI math researcher

Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048

Neither arrives by January 1, 2040

74

15

11

How fast scales deep alignment from preference learning (e.g. RLHF)?

Mar 26, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10

OptionProbability

Scanning faster than capabilities

Scaling as fast as capabilities

Scaling slower than capabilities

Not scaling

Inverse scaling

20

20

20

20

20

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