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Prediction markets for Break AI

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.12%chance

619656687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5551

4212

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

8988238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86621

36681

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

58.17%chance

17416820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2741

1709

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

847

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

11.79%chance

354112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2735

366

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Any other soccer league/tournament implements 4 quarters (2 hydration breaks) in the next year?

Jun 16, 1:34 AMJun 16, 1:33 AM

44%chance

7730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.62%chance

8111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

32

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

Sep 19, 7:41 PMJan 1, 8:25 PM

7109

OptionProbability

Autonomous AI math researcher

Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048

Neither arrives by January 1, 2040

71

17

12

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