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Prediction markets for Break AI

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5791

4783

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.58%chance

9391636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89124

36135

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.33%chance

17717468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3435

1317

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

10.09%chance

364362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2985

335

Will Sun get a girlfriend before October 12, 2027?

Oct 16, 8:01 PMOct 11, 3:00 PM

28.09%chance

383511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5453

4042

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Will AI break Bitcoin before 2028?

Oct 29, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

5486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

Sep 19, 7:41 PMJan 1, 8:25 PM

13414

OptionProbability

Autonomous AI math researcher

Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048

Neither arrives by January 1, 2040

93

4

3

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ?

Oct 15, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.88%chance

7298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

87

By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?

Aug 1, 4:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.9%chance

8268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

89

Will AI break crypto?

Oct 8, 12:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.13%chance

4259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

34

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.62%chance

8111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

32

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