Breaking Bad News

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM

148605

OptionProbability

4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026

8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes

8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026

3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments

5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments

6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments

1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026

2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments

3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes

1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments

2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026

7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments

5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes

2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes

7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes

4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments

1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes

6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes

5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026

3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026

7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026

6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026

4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes

8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments

100

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.78%chance

464841

OptionVotes

YES

964

918

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

YES

1375

847

When will Mike Norvell be fired as FSU's head coach?

Nov 19, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43300

OptionProbability

Other

Sometime after 2027

End of 2025

End of 2026

End of 2027

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

43.59%chance

111577

OptionVotes

YES

11377

8790

The US political system will break down as badly as Jan 6 again before 2040

Sep 5, 8:45 AMSep 12, 10:59 PM

75.41%chance

12855

OptionVotes

YES

1339

840

Which media will I enjoy reading/watching?

Apr 23, 6:41 PMAug 23, 6:21 PM

13516

OptionProbability

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Breaking Bad

Afghan Napoleon: The Life of Ahmad Shah Massoud

Project Lawful

Catch 22

Gordon Ramsay On Cocaine

Sunspot by Yootie

CodeandSolder's Guessing Game (subsidized)

Nov 10, 7:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5122

OptionProbability

CodeandSolder likes the TV show Breaking Bad

You like coders more than you like soldiers

You plan to resolve this answer to "NO"

You consider yourself to be to the political left of the average Democrat

<placeholder, do not resolve>

You have a good sleep schedule

100

Which cancelled tv show will be the first to have a AI generated new season?

Feb 17, 6:53 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4120

OptionProbability

Other

Max Headroom

The Office

Friends

Breaking Bad

Game of Thrones

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

YES

223

191

Is Game of Thrones better than Breaking Bad?

Nov 5, 9:56 PM

160

If you press the button, the Russia/Ukraine war is frozen at current borders with a permanent cease-fire

Sep 29, 3:39 PM

500

Breaking Bad News

Prediction markets for Breaking Bad

Prediction markets for Breaking Bad

Prediction markets for Breaking Bad

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

When will Mike Norvell be fired as FSU's head coach?

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

The US political system will break down as badly as Jan 6 again before 2040

Which media will I enjoy reading/watching?

CodeandSolder's Guessing Game (subsidized)

Which cancelled tv show will be the first to have a AI generated new season?

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Is Game of Thrones better than Breaking Bad?

If you press the button, the Russia/Ukraine war is frozen at current borders with a permanent cease-fire

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