BREAKING NEWS News

Yudkowsky Attends

Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing

Aella Attends

Mana is exchanged for goods

Mana is exchanged for services

There will be more than one reporter

Someone attends in a partial fursuit

Smores are consumed

Someone wears a suit and tie

There are at least five people talking after 5am

Trump golfs the weekend of the conference

Barak sells/offers something at night market

Standard (not RPS) poker tournament

Someone does the 6 7 thing with their hands in front of Eliezer Yudkowsky and he clearly sees it

Someone cries

>4 people group hug

10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend

Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference

Albie gets hugs from at least 5 different people

Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat

cuddle puddle of >5

Someone gets banned from manifest

More than five (non-admin) mods in attendance

Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it

All official @ManifoldSports World Cup markets for games played during the conference auto-resolve without issues

Attendance is higher than last year

There is a Karaoke Event

There will be a marshmallow fight

Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference

Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead

@Zoli hosts a wrestling event

A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial

A billionaire shows up

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Someone breakdances competently

Someone takes the "Giving What We Can" pledge

A session receives more than 2x RSVPs than the session location’s listed capacity

Analytic Philosophy vs. Rationalism panel happens

someone gets convinced to start writing on substack

Someone adds >= 10k liquidity to this market

7 or more people attend Sunday Mass with @Austin

there will be someone with a friend AI necklace

Malcolm Collins attends

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$10

10 or more markets are created and resolved within an hour (popups)

Someone writes a hit piece

Someone adds >= 20k liquidity to this market

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

Someone changes Robin Hanson's mind (verified by Hanson) - NA if he doesn't attend

Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo

RPS Poker Tournament

BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference

There is a Costume Contest

CFTC or other prediction market regulator appears (may be an employee)

Someone rickrolls Eliezer Yudkowsky

At least 3 Norwegian people attend Manifest.

There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023

Someone loses at least 50% of one eyebrow

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

Someone loses at least 25% of their total eyebrow mass

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

Scott Alexander mentions Tyler Cowen in public (no private convo)

Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana)

@ian finally reveals what his new middle name is

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$50

Someone attends in a full fursuit

Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be

There is an orgy

An article about the conference appears in the New York Times within one week of the conference's closing

Someone breaks an arm

Someone who previously did not belive that Tiramisu is cake is convinced otherwise

Runs out of Huel/Soylent

A pope attends

There is more than one orgy

There will be a Worldcoin Orb

Someone does coinflips and gets tails 7 times in a row

Destiny joins Manifold and bets on this market

Polymarket creates a market related to manifest

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

The conference is cancelled

YES

YES

Third World War

YES

YES

YES

NO

Breaking Points, Krystal Kyle and Friends OR Drop Site News

Zeteo

Megyn Kelly

Glenn Greenwald

Pod Save America

Ben Shapiro

Tucker Carlson

Nick Fuentes

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

YES

NO