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Prediction markets for Breakout

BTC close above 80K by end of March?

Mar 2, 6:28 PMApr 1, 8:59 PM

1.57%chance

3319725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7909

126

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

Mar 22, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133769

OptionProbability

$300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian)

$250M – $299.9M (Strong performance, ~3.4x multiplier)

$200M – $249.9M (Moderate legs, ~3x multiplier)

$350M – $399.9M (High-end breakout)

$400M or more (Mega-blockbuster status)

Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2)

30

25

19

17

5

3

Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?

Feb 19, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.2%chance

223207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

738

Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 on April 18, 2026?

Mar 18, 3:37 PMApr 18, 12:00 AM

13.79%chance

171415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 3:47 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23%chance

10436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

Jul 21, 4:28 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

20.36%chance

19293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

949

Will any movie released in 2026 gross over $2 billion worldwide?

Dec 13, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.2%chance

7118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

67

Will 3I/ATLAS show a Z-axis residual breakout >10km by June 15, 2026?

Mar 12, 2:38 AMJun 14, 11:59 PM

15.26%chance

477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

31

Will Connor Storrie come out as gay or bisexual by December 31 2026?

Feb 15, 1:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.62%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will ManifestxDC inspire additional Manifestx events ?

Nov 9, 7:29 AMDec 31, 3:57 PM

69.23%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

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